Iranian politics is a cocktail of empire, oil, revolution, and religious rule.
From Western-backed monarchs to anti-American theocrats, its political story is a pendulum swinging between nationalism, authoritarianism, and the battle for who gets to call the shots — clerics or civilians.
To understand today’s Iran, and with traders on Polymarket thinking there’s a 37% chance Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is out this year, you have to go back — way back — and trace the power shifts that reshaped not just the country but the region.
The Qajar Dynasty (1789–1925)
Iran’s modern political history starts under the Qajars, who failed to fend off colonial powers and lost territory to Russia and Britain. By the early 20th century, economic mismanagement and foreign control over oil lit the fuse for reform.
The Constitutional Revolution (1905–1911)
A wave of protest forced the Qajar monarch to create a parliament (the Majles). It was a short-lived win for democracy — military coups and foreign meddling quickly sidelined reformers.
Rise of Reza Shah (1925–1941)
In 1925, Reza Khan crowned himself Reza Shah and launched a secular, top-down modernization spree — banning veils, building railroads, and cracking down on dissent. But he cozied up to Germany in WWII, prompting the Allies to oust him and install his son, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
Mossadegh and the Coup (1951–1953)
Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran’s democratically elected prime minister, nationalized the oil industry — infuriating Britain and the U.S. The CIA and MI6 responded with a coup, reinstating the Shah. This single act poisoned U.S.-Iran relations for decades.
The Shah’s Authoritarian Reign (1953–1979)
Back in power, the Shah ruled through SAVAK, his brutal secret police, and showered the country with Westernization and oil money. But beneath the glittering façade was growing resentment — economic inequality, cultural dislocation, and no room for dissent.
The 1979 Islamic Revolution
Led by exiled cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a theocratic uprising overthrew the Shah. The monarchy fell, and Iran became an Islamic Republic, blending religious rule with limited elections. The U.S. embassy hostage crisis followed, locking in Iran’s anti-American stance.
War and Consolidation (1980–1988)
Iran fought a brutal eight-year war with Iraq under Saddam Hussein. The war decimated the country but also allowed the clerics to tighten their grip, silencing opposition and centralizing power in the hands of the Supreme Leader.
Reform and Resistance (1997–2005)
The late ‘90s saw a brief flirtation with reform. President Mohammad Khatami pushed for civil society and press freedoms — but hard-liners fought back, blocking major change. Iran’s democratic institutions proved fragile.
Ahmadinejad and the Green Movement (2005–2009)
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency was marked by populism, Holocaust denial, and nuclear escalation. When he “won” reelection in 2009 under suspicious circumstances, protests exploded. The regime crushed the Green Movement with violence and mass arrests.
The Modern Era: Power Struggles and Sanctions (2010s–Today)
Iran’s politics now orbit around a hard-line clerical elite, a reformist undercurrent, and the Revolutionary Guard’s deep state. The 2015 nuclear deal offered brief hope — until the U.S. pulled out. Since then: crushing sanctions, street protests, hijab crackdowns, and a regime that rules through fear, not legitimacy.
