In a move that’s already set the capital on fire politically, President Trump yanked control of the Metropolitan Police Department away from D.C. officials Monday and dropped roughly 800 National Guard troops into the streets.
According to prediction market Kalshi, there’s a 24% chance the District comes under total federal control by 2027. Not great odds for District residents who are still pining for D.C. to become a state.
The White House calls it a crime-and-homelessness crackdown. D.C. leaders call it an illegal power grab. The kicker? Crime is actually at a 30-year low.
The Order
Trump invoked the Home Rule Act to put D.C.’s police under federal control. Normally, this is a temporary, last-resort measure — but it’s now being used despite data showing crime is way down.
The Troops
About 800 National Guard members will patrol the city alongside roughly 120 FBI agents who’ll be on night detail. The Guard is on federal orders, not under D.C. command.
The New Boss
DEA Administrator Terry Cole is now running the MPD, reporting directly to Attorney General Pam Bondi — bypassing Mayor Muriel Bowser entirely.
The Rationale
Trump says the capital is in “worse shape than Mexico City” and compares it to Baghdad. The official line: rampant crime, unsafe streets, and a homelessness surge.
The Data Problem
The reality: violent crime is down 26% from last year and overall crime is at a 30-year low, according to the MPD and DOJ. Even homicides have dipped.
The Politics
Supporters — like Sen. Lindsey Graham — say it’s decisive leadership. Opponents call it election-year theater and a direct shot at the city’s majority-Black population.
The Pushback
Mayor Bowser and D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb slammed the move as “unnecessary and unlawful.” Civil rights advocates warn it will hit Black communities hardest.
The Legal Gray Zone
Yes, the Home Rule Act lets the feds step in during emergencies. But defining “emergency” here will likely be the centerpiece of the lawsuits already being drafted.
The Timeline
This federal takeover could last up to 30 days. Extending it would require Congress — meaning this fight is far from over.
When This Happened Before
Federalizing a city’s police force is rare. Past examples include:
- Little Rock, 1957 – Eisenhower sent the 101st Airborne to enforce school desegregation.
- Detroit, 1967 – Johnson deployed federal troops during deadly riots.
- Los Angeles, 1992 – Bush sent in federal forces during the Rodney King unrest.
None of those cases involved a city with falling crime rates — making D.C. 2025 stand out as a political and legal anomaly.
What’s Next
Expect court challenges, protests, and possibly clashes on the street. Whether crime falls further or the situation spirals into chaos will define the narrative.
Takeaway
It’s a rare — and possibly unprecedented — federal move in peacetime D.C., one that collides head-on with local governance. The data doesn’t match the stated crisis, and that gap will fuel the political and legal battle ahead.
