Deal or No Deal: Will Trump Pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?

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Convicted sex‑trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell spent two straight days this week briefing a senior Justice Department official.

Per Fox News, she reportedly named about 100 people in Jeffrey Epstein’s inner circle, in what points toward a bid for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump.

The move comes just as a bipartisan discharge petition in the House, led by Republican Thomas Massie and Democrat Ro Khanna, edges closer to forcing a vote on full public release of those documents, ratcheting up pressure on Trump.

So will Trump pardon Maxwell?

Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi now give Maxwell a hopeful 20% chance of receiving a pardon from the president. (Comment below with your predictions!)

Here’s everything else we know so far, including what may happen next.

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  • July 24‑25 closed‑door interviews at FCI Tallahassee: Maxwell reportedly answered questions about roughly 100 Epstein associates.
  • Her lawyer says she was given limited immunity to “tell all” and is openly seeking clemency from President Trump.
  • The gambit: leverage the intel to trade a 20‑year sentence for freedom, or at minimum a drastic cut.

Trump’s Mixed Signals

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  • Asked on Friday if he’d consider a pardon, Trump said he “hasn’t thought about it” but is “allowed to.” His statement obviously leaves the door open.
  • Privately, advisers fear alienating suburban voters, while MAGA influencers demand full disclosure of the files.
  • Ex‑personal attorney to Trump, Todd Blanche’s role as DOJ interviewer deepens the intrigue.

What Are the “Epstein Files”?

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  • Sealed grand‑jury material, flight logs, deposition transcripts, phone books and FBI 302s spanning 2006‑2019.
  • DOJ reportedly told Trump in May that his name appears in internal indices—one reason the trove remains locked.
  • Officials insist no “client list” exists, but conspiracy chatter keeps growing.

Who Else Could Be Named?

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  • Past reporting allegedly links Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew, Larry Summers, tech titans and Wall Street financiers to Epstein’s orbit.
  • Maxwell claims she can confirm or debunk rumors about “100 people” spanning politics, business and royalty.
  • Any corroborated name drops could upend reputations overnight.

Legal Hurdles to a Pardon

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  • Maxwell is still appealing her 2021 sex‑trafficking conviction; her Supreme Court petition (docket 24‑1073) is pending.
  • A full pardon would erase the conviction; a commutation would only shorten the sentence.
  • Sex‑crime pardons are vanishingly rare and would not shield her from civil suits by survivors.

Victims & Advocates Push Back

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  • Epstein survivors warn a pardon would signal the “complete crumbling” of the justice system.
  • Attorneys could invoke the Crime Victims’ Rights Act to object during any clemency review.
  • Public outrage already drives #ReleaseTheFiles and #NoPardon trends across social media.

Congress Turns Up the Heat

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  • Reps. Thomas Massie (R‑KY) and Ro Khanna (D‑CA) filed the Epstein Files Transparency Act; a discharge petition is gathering signatures.
  • If 218 members sign, House leaders must schedule a vote, which could be potentially before the August recess.
  • Democratic senators signal they’re prepared to subpoena the files if DOJ resists.

The 2026 Midterm Wildcard

How Party Blind Spots Play into Midterm Prediction Markets
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  • Releasing, or suppressing, the files could sway independents and energize activist bases on both left and right.
  • Strategists say suburban women are especially sensitive to sex‑crime narratives.
  • Early polling shows trust in DOJ transparency down 12 points since June.

Do ‘Info‑for‑Clemency’ Deals Ever Fly?

What's Next? Prediction Markets Anticipate Further Pardons, Executive Orders
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  • Past examples include Scooter Libby and Michael Milken, whicn centered on political or white‑collar offenses, not trafficking.
  • Presidents weigh optics: rewarding a sex‑crime convict could backfire spectacularly.
  • Legal experts say DOJ usually demands corroborating evidence before recommending relief.

What Happens Next?

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  • SCOTUS will decide in September whether to take Maxwell’s appeal; oral‑argument term begins Oct 6.
  • House petition deadline looms; if the 218‑signature threshold is met, a transparency vote could land by October.
  • Trump could issue clemency at any momentum given his presidential powers but such a move may not fly with his base.

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