As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, oils futures are reacting. Israel’s latest air-strikes on Iranian targets sent Brent crude soaring 13% intraday and still closing 7% higher at $74.23/bbl. Futures traders fear any tit-for-tat escalation could squeeze the roughly 1.6 million barrels a day Iran still moves onto world markets, much of it through a “dark fleet.”
There’s another threat: that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, prediction markets give this a 25% chance of happening sometime this year. And for countries quietly reliant on Iranian crude, the impact could be devastating. Here’s a closer look at the nations most exposed to Tehran’s energy exports.
China: Tehran’s Indispensable Customer
Beijing buys discounted barrels—often re-labelled “Malaysian”—to feed independent refineries. If the Strait shuts or U.S. sanctions tighten, China’s smaller “teapot” refiners are first in the line of pain.
Syria: Almost No Plan B
For years Damascus relied on Iranian tankers docking at Baniyas to run the national grid. Disruptions after regime change this winter idled the country’s largest refinery—proof that even a short pause can darken Syrian cities.
Turkey: A Quiet Return to Iranian Grades
After four sanction-ridden years, Ankara quietly restarted imports in 2024. Initial volumes are modest, but EU statistics confirm fresh Iranian cargoes landing at Turkish ports, giving its Tupras refineries a cheaper blend option.
UAE: The Trading Hub That Keeps Barrels Moving
Dubai-area ports such as Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan have clocked record through-put, with vessel trackers spotting Iranian cargoes blended and re-exported. If Israel-Iran conflict heats up, this mid-stream business—and the fees that come with it—could stall overnight.
Malaysia: The Stealth Gateway to Asia
A growing cluster of tankers is “going dark” off Malaysian waters, turning off transponders to mask ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian crude. U.S. sanctions have already targeted a Malaysian logistics firm accused of re-branding Tehran’s oil.
Venezuela: Diluent for the Orinoco
Caracas swaps its heavy crude for Iranian condensate—vital “thinner” that lets PDVSA pump export blends. When swap volumes shrank last year, Venezuelan output dipped. A renewed Israel-Iran flare-up could pinch those barrels again and derail PDVSA’s fragile rebound.
Afghanistan: Fuel Lifeline Across the Border
Land-locked Afghanistan sources roughly a quarter of all its imports—including diesel and LPG—from Iran, according to trade analysts. Any price spike in Persian-Gulf logistics quickly ripples through Kabul’s bazaars and bus fares.
Market Watch: Futures, Hedges & What’s Next
Banks are divided: J.P. Morgan still pencils Brent in the “low-to-mid $60s” for 2025, while Barclays warns a longer war could shove prices to $120+. Despite OPEC spare capacity, for import-dependent economies on this list, each extra $10/bbl can add 0.3–0.5 percentage points to inflation.
