Eight sluggers swing for a $1 million prize at Truist Park tonight (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). Prediction market traders give no one better than a 25% chance, as of Monday morning.
Here’s a closer look at each contestant, including their current odds to win the 2025 Home Run Derby.
Cal Raleigh, Mariners (25%)
- 2025 HR: 38
- Max EV: 114.7 mph (July 4)
- Position: Catcher, Seattle Mariners
Why he could win: Upper-cut, pull-power swing produces tape-measure shots that have the Seattle catcher on historic pace during the first half of the season.
Trader take: Market favorite at roughly one-in-four odds, but still far from a lock. Traders could be paying a premium due to his first half performance; Raleigh has been running extremely hot, turning 38 of his 90 hits into home runs. According to Baseball Savant, his expected home run rate (Xhr) is actually 30.
Oneil Cruz, Pirates (23%)
- 2025 HR: 16
- Max EV: 122.9 mph (May 25)
- Position: Shortstop/Center Field, Pittsburgh Pirates
Why he could win: Generates hardest contact amongst the contestants; Truist’s short right field suits his left-hand power.
Trader take: Second choice whose odds have bounced between 20–26%, reflecting both upside and volatility; it’s worth noting he has the lowest home run total of the bunch.
James Wood, Nationals (14%)
- 2025 HR: 24
- Max EV: 117.9 mph
- Position: Right/Center Field, Washington Nationals
Why he could win: Effortless opposite-field loft and top-tier exit velocity.
Trader take: Mid-teens odds make him a nice value play if the bracket breaks kindly.
Matt Olson, Braves (9%)
- 2025 HR: 17
- Max EV: 113.8 mph
- Position: First Base, Atlanta Braves
Why he could win: Home-park familiarity and crowd boost.
Trader take: Odds slipped to about 9% after a modest regular-season power showing where his hard-hit rate is down significantly versus his 2023 peak.
Byron Buxton, Twins (9%)
- 2025 HR: 21
- Max EV: 112.5 mph
- Position: Center Field, Minnesota Twins
Why he could win: Elite athleticism and plenty of 115 mph-plus barrels.
Trader take: Steady around 9%.
Junior Caminero, Rays (9%)
- 2025 HR: 23
- Max EV: 116.5 mph
- Position: Third Base/Designated Hitter, Tampa Bay Rays
Why he could win: Quick, one-hand finish delivers consistent 425-ft bombs which could deliver key bonus swings.
Trader take: Hovers near 9%, reflecting sky-high upside but uncertainty for the 22 year old who is making his derby debut.
Brent Rooker, Athletics (7%)
- 2025 HR: 20
- Max EV: 112.4 mph
- Position: Designated Hitter/Left Field, Oakland Athletics
Why he could win: He made it to the Derby, so he’s got a puncher’s chance.
Trader take: A live long-shot who could surprise if he gets hot early despite his relatively low exit velocity.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees (7%)
- 2025 HR: 17
- Max EV: 110.9 mph (July 9)
- Position: Second Base/Center Field, New York Yankees
Why he could win: Twitchy bat speed yields rapid-fire swings within the clock.
Trader take: Lowest-priced in the field; Upright stance can produce topspin liners that fall short of Derby fences, as we’ve seen from other hitters in previous derbies.
Viewing & Trading Tips
- Watch the live board: Kalshi’s home run derby forecast updates in real time, making the prediction market an instant win-probability meter with every swing of the bat.
- Lefty edge: Atlanta’s 326-ft right-field porch aids Cruz, Wood, Olson, and switch-hitter Raleigh.
- Bonus-ball kings: Any 425-ft blast earns 30 seconds of bonus time; Caminero and Buxton boast the most 115 mph + 30° launches this season..
Bottom Line
With six of eight hitters clustered between 7–14% and even the favorite at just 25%, the 2025 home run derby is wide open. Whether you’re trading contracts, laying wagers, or simply watching for moonshots, buckle up because tonight’s Atlanta slugfest should rival its post-Derby fireworks.
