Forty-eight minutes. One trophy. Two teams chasing history. After an incredibel back-and-forth NBA Finals, the Thunder and Pacers head into Game 7 with everything on the line.
Here are seven bold predictions for what could be an all-time classic in Oklahoma City.
What the Odds Say
First, let’s take a look at the game odds.
The Thunder are hefty 7.5 point favorites Sunday night, and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket give them a 72% chance of winning the game.
To no one’s surprise, Game 7 is expected to be an uphill battle for the resilient Indiana Pacers, one that is made even more difficult given the calf injury to star Tyrese Haliburton. But the Pacers have been beating the odds all season. At one point, they were given merely a 1% chance of winning the coveted Larry O’Brien Trophy, now they are only one game away.
These underdogs have a bark, and a bite. Though the point spread suggests the Thunder are likely to win comfortably, it’s safe to say the league has learned to never count the Pacers out. If they do pull off the win tonight, it will be one of the biggest upsets in NBA Finals history.
Over or Under? 215 Total Points
PREDICTION: The UNDER cashes in a defensive grind.
The total for Game 7 sits at 215, a line that’s dropped from earlier games — and for good reason. Game 7s are historically low-scoring affairs; nerves, urgency, and playoff whistles tend to shrink possessions and inflate every shot’s importance. Five of the last seven Finals Game 7s went under their totals, and both the Thunder and Pacers rank top‑5 in defensive rating this postseason. Expect points to be at a premium Sunday night in OKC.
Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander Redemption Tour
PREDICTION: Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander drops 35‑plus.
The league MVP coughed the ball up a career‑playoff‑worst eight times in Game 6, then spent the flight home replaying every mistake. OKC is 10‑2 at Paycom Center this postseason and hasn’t lost back‑to‑back games all playoffs, a trend driven by SGA’s bounce‑back mentality. Expect the Thunder star to tighten the handle, live at the nail and eclipse his 30.0 playoff scoring average to secure the hardware.
Hobbled Haliburton
PREDICTION: Tyrese Haliburton struggles, scoring fewer than 15 points.
Haliburton admitted the leg remains “stiff and sore,” as he fought to score 14 points and five assists on Thursday. He only played 23 minutes, though. Rick Carlisle won’t have the luxury of easing his All‑Star into Game 7. In any case, the leg, and the environment, will continue to make things tough on the point guard.
Holmgren Block Party
PREDICTION: Chet Holmgren records at least three blocks, flipping the interior battle.
The rookie 7‑footer has struggled in the Finals, no doubt, but Game 7 stages often belong to shot‑blockers (think Bosh, 2013; Garnett, 2010). Holmgren’s length deters Indiana’s rim pressure and, on the other end, his pick‑and‑pop triples drag Pascal Siakam away from the paint. He’ll be much more comfortable in his home arena, and with a ruckus crowd standing behind him.
Bench Mob Strikes Again
PREDICTION: Indiana’s reserves outscore Oklahoma City’s benched.
Game 6 flipped when Obi Toppin, Andrew Nembhard and the ever‑pesky T.J. McConnell spearheaded a 36‑9 blitz. Carlisle’s second unit averages 34.7 PPG this series and faces a Thunder bench that has sputtered outside of Aaron Wiggins. Another energy surge keeps the Pacers within striking distance.
Turnovers Tell the Tale
PREDICTION: The team that wins the turnover battle wins the championship — and OKC keeps its perfect home streak alive.
The Thunder are 12‑0 at Paycom this season (regular + post) when they commit 12 or fewer miscues and have “yet to lose the turnover battle at home” this postseason. After gifting Indy 21 points off giveaways in Game 6, expect Mark Daigneault’s group to value every possession.
A One Possession Finish
PREDICTION: Game 7 is decided by fewer than 5 points.
Fifteen of 19 previous Finals Game 7s were won by the home side, but visiting teams have taken 9 of the last 14 Game 7s overall. The historical tug‑of‑war plus two evenly matched offenses point to a nail‑biter reminiscent of 2016’s 93‑89 classic.
The Thunder Finally Thunder Up
PREDICTION: Oklahoma City captures its first title since the franchise’s Seattle days (1979) — but not before surviving a late Haliburton dagger attempt.
Home‑court history (15‑4 in Finals Game 7s), the league’s best regular‑season record and a 10‑2 playoff mark in OKC suggest the Larry O’Brien Trophy stays in Loud City. The Pacers’ fairy‑tale run keeps the drama alive until the final buzzer, yet SGA and the Thunder’s elite defense close the book on a series for the ages
SGA MVP
PREDICTION: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander clinches Finals MVP.
It’s been a breakout postseason for SGA, who entered the Finals as the betting favorite for MVP and hasn’t disappointed. Averaging over 30 points per game, leading the Thunder in clutch scoring, and anchoring their half-court offense, he’s been OKC’s constant. Even if Game 7 comes down to the wire — or if someone like Chet Holmgren or Lu Dort shines — voters are likely to reward SGA’s consistency across the series. It’s his time.
However, if I’m wrong and the Pacers stun the Thunder crowed, expect Pascal Siakam to walk away with the hardware. His odds have surged from just 6% two games ago to 23%. Halburton’s chances are only 8%, while Jalen Williams is at 4%. Everyone else? Sub-1%.
Win or Lose, a Thunder Dynasty Is Brewing
PREDICTION: No matter Sunday’s result, OKC is just getting started.
With the youngest core in Finals history, a war chest of draft picks, and a superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under contract through 2027, the Thunder’s window is wide open. Chet Holmgren is still scratching the surface. Jalen Williams is ascending. And GM Sam Presti has the flexibility to land another star. Whether they raise the trophy now or fall just short, don’t expect this to be a one-time trip to the mountaintop. The Thunder are built for the long run.
Offseason Moves
PREDICTION: Trades are incoming, even for the Thunder.
If the Pacers fall short, expect Indiana to chase another two-way wing or frontcourt piece to support Haliburton — possibly dangling draft capital or Buddy Hield’s expiring deal. Even if the Thunder win it all, don’t rule out a bold swing from Sam Presti to accelerate the dynasty — using their mountain of draft picks to land a co-star or bolster the bench. Both teams are young, exciting, and ahead of schedule — but that also means expectations (and pressure) are about to spike.
