As New York City barrels toward its November mayoral election, the Bronx has emerged as one of the most critical — and misunderstood — battlegrounds in the five-borough fight. While much of the national coverage fixates on Manhattan donors or Brooklyn progressives, it’s the Bronx that may ultimately decide who claims City Hall.
The Bronx is the beating heart of working-class New York — diverse, proud, and fiercely local. It’s home to the city’s largest Latino population, a growing immigrant base, and a deeply rooted Black community that has long shaped the city’s political spine. Historically, the Bronx has leaned heavily Democratic, often delivering some of the highest margins in the city for establishment candidates. But in 2025, that predictability is starting to crack.
Borough politics are shifting
The borough’s politics are shifting along the same pressure lines shaping the rest of the city: affordability, public safety, and the sense that City Hall feels further away than ever. In the Democratic primary, the more moderate candidate dominated the Bronx, winning by nearly 18 points while losing or barely edging out progressives in Brooklyn and Queens. That showed something vital — the Bronx remains the anchor of New York’s working-class moderates.
But this time, the dynamics have changed. Progressive nominee Zohran Mamdani has built a robust grassroots operation stretching into Fordham, Mott Haven, and Hunts Point — areas where tenant activism and youth voter turnout could swing the margins. Meanwhile, former governor Andrew Cuomo, running as a centrist independent with heavy backing from traditional Democratic power brokers, is leaning hard into Bronx retail politics: block parties, bodegas, and barbershops.
The Bronx loves face time. Candidates who show up — literally — tend to do better than those who rely on ads or citywide mailers. That’s why Cuomo’s been spotted in Co-op City and Parkchester, while Mamdani has spent weekends canvassing near Yankee Stadium and Soundview. The borough isn’t swayed by cable-news talking points; it responds to presence and consistency.
What the polls say
Polls are mixed but telling. Citywide surveys show Mamdani slightly ahead, but internal numbers suggest Cuomo performs stronger in the Bronx than anywhere else, thanks to older, churchgoing, and union-aligned voters. If those groups turn out in force — and if the weather holds — Cuomo could carve out a decisive borough margin. But if Mamdani’s ground game turns out younger and first-time voters, especially renters under 35, he could narrow or even erase that lead.
Public safety, transit, and rent remain the top three issues. Subway reliability, especially on the 2, 4, and 6 lines, dominates local frustration. Affordable housing projects — many stalled by city red tape — are shaping the tone of campaign stops. And cost-of-living pressure has created unusual crossover appeal between moderates and progressives: both are promising rent relief, just packaged differently.
The Bronx also tends to trail in turnout — which makes it volatile. In a city where even a small turnout shift can swing the race by tens of thousands of votes, energizing the Bronx isn’t optional; it’s essential. Whoever invests in mobilizing this borough’s electorate — with language access, local events, and culturally rooted messaging — will likely win it.
Our call: the Bronx still leans slightly toward Cuomo, but the margin is soft. The deciding factor will be whether Mamdani’s insurgent base can overcome voter fatigue and low enthusiasm. Overperforming here can make or break either campaign.
Bottom line — ignore the Bronx at your peril. Manhattan might shape the headlines, Brooklyn might shape the narrative, but the Bronx will shape the result. Whoever wins it will probably win the city.
