As the debate unfolds Tuesday night, you can use our live odds market tracker to keep up with how the presidential odds are shaping up in real-time across four different prediction market platforms.
As traders monitor the debate, we’ll monitor the markets, providing minute-by-minute updates on any fluctuating odds for the Republican and Democratic candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Here’s everything you need to know to put our live presidential odds market tracker to use.
Which prediction markets are in your live presidential odds market tracker?
The tool tracks real-time prices from four prediction markets — Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket, Betfair, and Smarkets.
How does the market tracker work?
The market tracker translates prediction market prices and odds into live probabilities. So if Donald Trump is 52.2¢ on Polymarket, our tracker will show him with a 52% to win the election. The probabilities update minute-by-minute based on real-time price fluctuations. If a candidate has a gaffe, you can check our market tracker to see if it has impacted their election odds.
Why do some probabilities exceed 100%?
In some cases, you may notice that the probabilities of all possible outcomes exceed 100%. This is called overrounding, typically the result of market fees and/or liquidity issues.
Many prediction markets generate revenue by charging fees or commissions on trades. These fees are baked into the market prices, which are adjusted slightly higher than the actual probability of an event.
The bid-ask spread also creates overround in illiquid and/or volatile markets. Markets with less liquidity have wider bid-ask spreads because there are fewer buys and sellers willing to trade near the current market price
Why are some combined probabilities less than 100%?
Sometimes, combined market probabilities fall short of 100%. This typically occurs when not every candidate is included in the market tracker. For instance, if a third-party candidate has a 2% chance of winning but isn’t tracked, their percentage won’t be counted.
What happens to the market tracker after the debate?
Even after the debate wraps up, our live odds tracker will continue to monitor market activity, reflecting how the candidates’ performances resonate with traders overnight and into the days that follow.
ADVERTISEMENT
