On Sept. 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that he supported Kamala Harris for president. CNN reported that at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin said:
“Our ‘favorite,’ if you can call it that, was the current president, Mr. [Joe] Biden. But he was removed from the race, and he recommended all his supporters to support Ms. Harris. Well, we will do so – we will support her.”
Putin’s remarks were widely seen as inauthentic. Russia routinely tries to meddle in foreign elections. In 2020, Russia unleashed a cyberattack on Estonia and attempted another on Ukraine. The U.S. Department of Justice issued a Sept. 4 press release that outlined steps that law enforcement was taking to counter Russian influence in the 2024 election.
Putin’s Harris endorsement may have been a small ploy to influence American election discourse, but it didn’t move prediction markets. PredictIt and Manifold saw little price change from Sept. 6 to Sept. 7. Harris’ position on Polymarket hovered around 47 to 48 cents.
Prediction Markets Filter Useful and Useless Information
Prediction markets create a snapshot of what a group of traders thinks it knows about a topic. Traders respond to some pieces of information and ignore others.
Putin’s Harris endorsement is a great example of a data point that prediction markets deemed meaningless. Russia’s leader is known to be a disingenuous actor. After investigations of Donald Trump’s connections to Russian oligarchs and political operatives, Putin knows that Democrats despise him. Endorsing Harris is a way to troll Democratic voters by giving Republicans room to “what about” Harris on Russia.
Putin hasn’t been able to directly change American elections, so his interview in Eastern Russia has little weight to begin with. His motivations to troll Americans make him even more unreliable, and prediction market traders didn’t fall for it.
