The October Surprise is a crucial moment in the presidential election season. However, its unpredictability makes it a moment that only the most sophisticated election bettors can take advantage of.
Each election season, a new piece of information comes out before Election Day. This new piece of information may be a legitimately new data point or a planned leak from the opposing campaign. This new data point is called the October Surprise.
The October Surprise isn’t a planned event. It could come at the beginning or end of the month. Whenever it occurs, it’s consequential and can change the outcome of the presidential race.
Betting on the Presidential Election’s October Surprise
The last two October Surprises were different in substance and in their impacts on the election.
In 2016, FBI Director James Comey announced the FBI was reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. The FBI had found 30,000 new Clinton emails in a separate investigation that hadn’t been examined yet. The emails wouldn’t turn out to be consequential legal cases, but the announcement was credited with turning the race to Donald Trump.
In contrast, the 2020 October Surprise had little impact on the race. Trump campaign lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, alleged that he found emails on Hunter Biden’s laptop that showed connections between the Biden family and foreign governments. Giuliani and the Trump campaign hoped Hunter Biden’s laptop would prove that the Bidens received payments from foreign governments in exchange for favorable policies.
Many claims about the laptop’s contents remain unproven. The laptop failed to prove that Joe Biden was in league with his son to accept foreign bribes in 2020. Consequently, the laptop story had little impact on the 2020 presidential election.
The October Surprise in 2024 may or may not be consequential. But it will happen, and election market traders will need to be prepared to act on that information immediately.
Possible 2024 October Surprises
There are two possible October Surprises for the 2024 presidential race. One would be a new Trump scandal, and the other would be a new piece of information about Harris.
So far, Trump has avoided many of his most severe legal cases. Trump was convicted on 34 felony charges in his New York hush money case. However, sentencing for that case – in which he falsified business documents and transactions to pay for a porn star’s silence – was delayed until after the election.
An October Surprise that adversely affects Trump could be a new case or new legal scandal. It may not be effective among his loyal base, but new legal troubles could push swing voters to Harris’ column.
However, Harris has more to lose to an October Surprise than Trump. One of her strengths is how new she is as a candidate. That gives scandals less time to brew and opposition researchers less time to dig for an impactful scandal.
A great October Surprise for Trump would be a scandal against Harris, and prominent Democrats recognize that. Hillary Clinton has warned that Harris will face attempts to “distort and pervert” her record.
With more to lose, anyone watching for an October Surprise should watch for an attack against the Harris campaign. Trump’s supporters have priced in his long list of scandals in their support for him.
