Prediction markets suggest that Kamala Harris has a large advantage over Donald Trump in the Sept. 10 presidential debate on ABC.
As of Sept. 9, Polymarket had Harris’ victory trading at 73 cents per share over Trump’s 28 cents. Manifold Markets shows a 68/32 split in Harris’ favor. A Metaculus prediction market predicts that Harris’ polling will improve by one point after the debate.
The debate winner will be settled by polls that follow the debate. Polymarket is using the 538/Ipsos poll to settle the market. Check the settlement details for which newspaper, poll or other source the market is using to decide the market’s winner.
What to Watch for in the Trump v. Harris Debate
The presidential debates are opportunities for the candidates to flesh out their values and policy positions to their voters. The debates also force the candidates to defend themselves against a moderator and their opponent’s attacks.
Both candidates will be angling for soundbites that can build attack ads later. However, they also need soundbites that can be passed around social media to show what the candidates think about an issue concisely. The best soundbites will weigh heavily in the decision of who wins the night.
Both candidates also have different strategies to win undecided and swing voters. Trump must appeal to the center by appearing statesman-like and presidential. Harris must articulate her policy positions and make policy appeals to the political center.
Trump’s bombast is a double-edged sword. His outsider status gave him an anti-establishment boost in 2016. However, Biden’s “return to normal” appeal defeated Trump in 2020, showing the limits of outsider status even among an electorate skeptical of their country’s elites. Trump will have to give substantial answers along with policy attacks – and he must cut back on personal attacks against Harris.
As a new candidate, Harris must juggle a few priorities at once. She must defend Biden’s economic policies, which reduced the inflation rate but also oversaw its sharp increase in 2022. Harris also has to offer details about what she would do differently as president instead of vice president. It’s a delicate balance that must avoid alienating the White House while charting her own course.
Finally, both candidates must defend themselves against their weakest issues. Harris will have to defend herself on immigration and migrants crossing the Southern border. Trump will have to defend himself on federal abortion policy.
Both candidates have influenced policies in their weakest areas. Trump appointed the justices who paved the way for the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Harris was the “Border Czar” in charge of addressing the migrant crisis under the Biden Administration. How well both candidates defend themselves on their toughest issues will also influence the debate’s perceived winner.
