2024 is the prediction market election. Spearheaded by industry hegemons Polymarket and Kalshi, election betting interest has surged, injecting election odds into our political coverage across all mediums.
Literal billions of dollars have been wagered on Republican and Democrat nominees, including a staggering $40 million from a single bettor.
Here are some of the most notable bets of this election cycle, including a few celebrity wagers.
The $40 million whale
A Frenchman known as “Fredi” used four accounts to bet what is now more than $47 million, and could easily be more than $50 million before a winner is determined, on Donald Trump to win the presidency.
The anonymous trader amassed most of his position within a brief window, pushing the market in Trump’s favor while sparking accusations of manipulation and nefarious motives. Some even wondered if Elon Musk was behind the accounts (he wasn’t).
The man behind the bets has since talked to the Wall Street Journal while maintaining anonymity and giving some rather unconvincing explanations. You can track Fredi’s trading activity through Election Day here, courtesy of The Super Model Substack.
That dark green, 2nd largest slice of Fredi's portfolio is for Trump to win the popular vote (where's Trump's current price on @polymarket is 41%). Now nearly $8M spent on that bet.
— The Super Model (@TheSuper_Model) October 22, 2024
That's been the fastest growing part of Fredi's portfolio over the last 24 hours.
For our money,… pic.twitter.com/oHQWOX4NF7
Top professional trader 'Domer' backs Harris
A professional trader known as “Domer” said he is taking a sizeable position on Kamala Harris, explaining that he gives her a 55-60% of winning. A quick glimpse at his Polymarket activity, where he’s the second-most profitable trader of all time according to their leaderboard, and you will find at least $600,000 on the Democratic nominee across several different markets, including the winner of Pennsylvania.
The last important pieces of the polling puzzle are in this morning (NYT polls & Muhlenberg in PA), and I'll say that I think Kamala is now somewhere around 55-60% range to be the next President. Given markets put Trump around 55%, I'm betting a lot on Kam at the moment.
— Domer (@Domahhhh) November 3, 2024
If you… pic.twitter.com/HzMINRbu3i
Full-time prediction market trader bets Harris early
Adam Sherman, another full-time prediction market trader, stands to win more than $100,000 on an early bet made on Kamala Harris before President Biden dropped out. He’s “only” risking $22,512 — an impressively prescient wager regardless of what happens on Election Day.
I see 100,000 reasons. https://t.co/JttdCVbFID pic.twitter.com/NjVgyPT6Lv
— Adam Sherman 🔸 (@Squee451) November 3, 2024
Theo Von bets $125,000 on Trump
Comedian and podcast host Theo Von put $125,000 — more money than he won in four seasons of the “Real World/Road Rules Challenge” on MTV — Donald Trump when the Republican Candidate was 59% to win, tweeting out his bet with, I think, a reference to Morgan Wallen’s hit song “Last Night.”
Is the money talking? pic.twitter.com/Jk0ebmXNR7
— Theo Von (@TheoVon) October 23, 2024
Antonio Brown puts $5,800 on Trump
Antonio Brown went straight from the campaign to the Kalshi app to bet on Trump. In another universe, Trump is still hosting “The Apprentice,” and Brown is getting fired. It’s a very small drop into Kalshi’s $280 million pool of presidential bets but anything with Antonio Brown is worth a headline.
Put that shit on @Kalshi pic.twitter.com/wVMa1R5QfL
— AB (@AB84) November 1, 2024
Other notable bets
I never bet but this feels right. Who are you betting on? @Kalshi 🤘🏽😝🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/C9tW9nCab5
— Amber Rose (@DaRealAmberRose) November 4, 2024
Someone just put $1,015,000 on Trump to lose
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 15, 2024
Who did this, wrong answers only🤣👇 pic.twitter.com/zs7NqZwb6E
🚨BREAKING: Over $500,000 was just placed on Kamala Harris to WIN the Presidential Election pic.twitter.com/g5gkoA24AP
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 18, 2024
