Trump’s second term is shaping up to be at least as dramatic as his first. Riding on a surprising Republican trifecta win, Trump is returning to power with more loyalists than at the start of his first term. That will make it easier for his agenda and most impulsive policy ideas to become reality.
For all of Trump’s unpredictability, there are a few political predictions worth making in 2025. We’re watching these political prediction markets going into 2025:
Three political predictions for 2025
Trump’s unpredictability may make him the disruptive candidate that voters wanted to shake up Washington D.C. However, that unpredictability also exacerbates his weaknesses in diplomacy with both domestic political rivals and allies abroad.
Elsewhere in the Republican Party, Speaker Mike Johnson is caught between Trump’s most fervent supporters in the House and Trump’s inner circle. Johnson’s inability to manage the MAGA faction while advancing legislation calls his future as speaker into question.
Meanwhile, prediction markets do not have encouraging forecasts for either man.
Will Trump's approval rating be above 50% after one year in office?
Manifold traders are betting on another tumultuous and unpopular Trump term.
Expert Pick: NO (81%)
Analysis: In Trump’s first term, Gallup never measured an approval rating above 49%. FiveThirtyEight’s average approval rating remained below 46%. Trump’s divisiveness hurt his ability to win over Democrats, some Independents, and portions of the Republican Party. Trump’s 49% approval rating from Gallup came from the U.S. economy’s strong performance and his first impeachment acquittal.
There was also a rallying effect behind the president in the first weeks of the COVID-19 lockdowns. By the end of May, Trump’s approval rating had dropped back down to high 30s and low 40s.
American voters may have voted for disrupting old institutions. But they did not enjoy the chaos and newsjacking of Trump’s first term. If Trump enacts his tariffs, the price increases that Americans decried under Biden’s administration will repeat themselves in Trump’s second term.
This time, Trump would face criticism for rising prices, and it would be due to his own policies rather than responses to immediate disasters like COVID or unfolding disasters like a land war in Europe that disrupted global trade.
Trump’s average FiveThirtyEight favorability rating is about 47%. Once he has to govern instead of speak about change, dissatisfaction with his solutions will likely pull his approval ratings down.
Will Trump end the war in Ukraine in 90 days?
Polymarket traders are doubting Trump’s diplomatic skills. They don’t think he’ll end a major war in three months.
Expert Pick: NO (59%)
Analysis: The war in Ukraine began when Russia launched ground troops into eastern Ukraine on Feb. 22, 2022. Ukraine had been trying to end Russian aggression in Crimea, a portion of eastern Ukraine that Russia seized through Kremlin-friendly politicians, staged elections, and unmarked military troops in 2014. Russian and Ukrainian forces have been locked in a hot war in eastern Ukraine ever since.
A party friendly to Putin failed to win enough seats in Ukraine’s parliamentary elections in 2019 to stop Ukraine’s drift toward the West. The leader of that party, Viktor Medvedchuk, was accused of financing terrorism due to his ties to the Kremlin. Putin began moving Russia’s forces on Ukraine’s northern, eastern, and southern borders shortly after his favored candidate, his party, and his news channels became politically paralyzed.
Both sides believe they have the right to determine the future of eastern Ukraine. So, there’s currently no path to negotiation to end the war, no matter how badly Trump wants a quick foreign policy victory.
Mike Johnson out as speaker in 2025?
Kalshi traders are split over whether President-elect Trump’s endorsement of Mike Johnson will protect him throughout 2025.
Expert Pick: YES (38%)
Analysis: Republican Speaker of the House is a difficult job. It involves being caught between the president, the Democrats, Republicans who are willing to compromise to pass legislation, and the most radical Republicans.
Johnson rose to the speakership in 2023 after MAGA Republicans led a campaign to oust Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy lasted about 10 months as Speaker of the House. It took 15 votes for him to become speaker, and he allowed a rule that let a single member to bring a vote to remove a speaker. One Republican did, and eight Republicans joined Democrats to oust McCarthy in October 2023.
Johnson is vulnerable to Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who tried to oust him in March 2024. Despite his survival, a single compromise with Democrats that Trump or MAGA Republicans object to could trigger a successful removal vote.
The government shutdown scare in 2024 highlighted Johnson’s strategic weakness. Musk’s tweets killed two of Johnson’s funding bills, casting doubt on Johnson’s ability to either outmaneuver other powerful politicians or remain sufficiently loyal to Trump to survive removal threats from MAGA Republicans in the House.
These events don’t bode well for Johnson’s future in the 119th Congress, and Trump’s Dec. 30 endorsement of Johnson doesn’t necessarily protect him later down the road.
