Who is Satoshi? It’s a question as old as Bitcoin itself, and HBO is set to reveal a name this week if prediction markets and memecoins don’t spoil it first.
“Money Electric: the Bitcoin Mystery” will air on HBO this Tuesday, Oct. 8, as documentary filmmaker and director Cullen Hoback seeks to unmask the identity of Bitcoin’s creator.
Real money is being wagered on the documentary’s conclusion via Polymarket, the popular decentralized prediction market that runs on blockchain technology.
It’s not just a few bucks. As of Monday at 2 p.m. ET, there’s over $7 million on the line.
There’s a lot to unpack beyond trading volume, candidates, and current odds.
Here’s what you need to know about “Money Electric: the Bitcoin Mystery,” whether you’re betting on the answer yourself or simply tuning in.
Will the documentary actually reveal who Satoshi is?
Hoback’s conclusion will be speculative. In fact, there’s a separate question on Polymarket — When will Satoshi’s identity be proven? — that implies merely an 8.6% chance that we’ll have a conclusive answer by the end of this year.
Are leaks or inside information impacting the market?
The existence of such a market, where the outcome is already known by a small group of people, isn’t the first of its kind, but it does continue to raise interesting questions about insider information and market manipulation.
For example, someone who worked on the film can directly profit from their insider knowledge by betting on the outcome. Hoback even commented on the market while giving out a hint on what not to bet.
For all you gamblers out there: I’m not entering this betting pool on #MoneyElectric: The Bitcoin Mystery, but I will confirm—we land on a specific name.https://t.co/DYq5BItlPC
— Cullen (@CullenHoback) October 4, 2024
Despite the producer’s tip, “Other/Multiple” was the second-most probable outcome on Polymarket at ~39% Sunday night. By “Other/Multiple,” I mean the conclusion of the documentary will present two or more individuals as “equally likely” to have created Bitcoin, per Polymarket’s resolution terms, or someone other than the listed names.
While we can’t rule out “insider trading” per se, the market does not have an odds-on favorite in the market (i.e., all market candidates are less than 50%), so there doesn’t appear to be any widespread leaks.
An analogous market came from summer’s Bachelorette season. Contestant Devin Strader’s chances skyrocketed to 91% within two days of the market’s creation on Polymarket and several weeks before the season finale. Strader was, of course, the eventual winner.
Fears of insider trading don’t appear to be deterring traders, as millions have poured into the market over the weekend.
“There will always be insider trading,” a seasoned crypto fund manager, who asked to remain anonymous, said. “At least with crypto, you can see it in real time and make your own decisions on whether to follow the money.”
Who is the favorite to be Satoshi?
If the documentary lands on a single person, Len Sassaman is the favorite. The deceased cryptographer is now trading at 20% (accurate as of Monday, Oct. 7 at 11:30 p.m. ET), down from its high of 68% on Oct. 3.
The timing of Sassaman’s death in 2011, a couple of months after Nakamoto’s last email, has partially fueled speculation that he’s the author of Bitcoin’s notorious whitepaper written under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.
A well-known cypherpunk, Sassaman was a privacy advocate and studied under prominent crypto pioneer David Chaum.
There’s even a tribute to Len Sassaman on the Bitcoin blockchain.
Why do people think Satoshi is someone else?
In 2021, after a story linked Satoshi to Sassaman, Sassaman’s widow, Meredith Patterson, shed doubt on the speculation.
It's a very well-researched and respectful article, but to the best of my knowledge, Len was not Satoshi. Worth reading for the history and the conclusions about mental health, though. https://t.co/am4EG57YvC
— Meredith L. Patterson 💉💉 (@maradydd) February 23, 2021
A decade prior, Sassaman tweeted a series of criticisms of Bitcoin.
This big Bitcoin heist shows Bitcoin suffers from the worst of both worlds: no strong anonymity, yet no fraud reversal protection.
— Len Sassaman (@lensassaman) June 15, 2011
Of course, this doesn’t disqualify Sassaman from being Bitcoin’s creator and certainly doesn’t prevent the documentary from crowning him as such.
If not Sassaman, then who?
Other popular choices include Nick Szabo (18%), Adam Back (12%), and Hal Finney (4%).
Nick Szabo is a computer scientist and legal scholar who has been dubbed as one of crypto’s founding fathers, thanks to pioneering the concept of smart contracts. In the late 90s, Szabo came up with the idea of “Bit Gold,” a precursor to Bitcoin with stark similarities.
Back was the first person to communicate with Satoshi, and has long been considered a candidate despite repeatedly denying the accusations. For what it’s worth, he doesn’t think the the filmmakers know the truth, either.
I'm not. But also the documentary will presumably be wrong, as no one knows who Satoshi is.
— Adam Back (@adam3us) October 5, 2024
Hall Finney received the first Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi, and lived near Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto, stirring rumors that he may have used his neighbor’s name as a pseudonym.
Memecoins as flawed prediction markets
Prediction markets aren’t the only way to speculate on the upcoming Bitcoin documentary. Crypto users are also buying memecoins, inspired and named after rumored Bitcoin creators, to voice their confidence in various crypto figures, effectively turning cryptocurrencies into flawed prediction markets.
The thought is that if one places a bet on the correct personality via their token, then the coin value will spike long-term. However, there is the possibility that the coin crashes and buyers lose regardless, making memecoins much riskier than actual prediction market platforms.
The token SASHA, named after one of Sassaman’s cats, was created on Solana blockchain and has spiked in price in the lead-up to HBO’s big reveal.
