Prediction markets are showing overwhelming confidence that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will address unemployment and tariffs while keeping interest rates unchanged during his July 30 press conference.
The meeting comes amid intensifying criticism from President Donald Trump, who has accused Powell of keeping rates too high. While the Fed has acknowledged that cuts might eventually be necessary, officials have held off, awaiting more clarity on the economic effects of Trump’s tariffs.
That clarity hasn’t materialized, analysts say, allowing Powell to maintain the central bank’s cautious, data-dependent stance.
What do Jerome Powell FOMC mention markets say?
The mention markets on platforms like Kalshi reveal traders betting with near-certainty that Powell will use key economic terms. “Unemployment” leads all bets at 99¢, followed closely by his traditional opening “Good afternoon” at 98¢. The word “tariff” commands 98¢, reflecting ongoing concerns about trade policy impacts on monetary decisions.
Meanwhile, separate betting markets show a 95% probability (96¢) the Fed will maintain its current federal funds rate of 4.25% to 4.50%, with only a 4% chance (4¢) of a 25 basis point cut.
The Fed’s July 30 meeting comes as economic signals point toward a potential policy shift later this year. Fed officials expect to make two 25‑basis‑point rate cuts later in 2025, according to the released economic projections from the June meeting.
Labor market concerns drive betting activity
The 99¢ odds on Powell mentioning “unemployment” reflect growing concerns about labor market softening. Recent employment data showed job growth slowing, with the unemployment rate rising from 4% to 4.1% in January. Major corporations and government agencies have announced significant layoffs, including a 15% cut at Intel and plans by the Department of Veterans Affairs to reduce its workforce by over 80,000 employees.
Powell previously stated that “if the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we can ease policy accordingly.”
Other heavily favored mentions include “data” (99¢ | 98%), “spending” (97¢ | 98%), “expectation” (98¢ | 98%), and “growth” (98¢ | 98%), all terms that signal the Fed’s data-dependent approach to policy decisions. Long shot bets like “Trump” (15¢), “Quantitative Easing / QE” (18¢), and even “Genius” (8¢) are still drawing interest.
The Federal Reserve press conference will be streamed live at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 30, at the federal reserve website shortly following the release of the policy statement at 2 p.m.
Top market predictions: What Powell might say and why
‘Credit’ (39¢ | 38%)
Why Powell could say it: Credit markets are a key channel through which monetary policy affects the real economy. Tighter lending standards could slow consumer and business spending, which the Fed monitors closely.
Market analysis: Toss-up. With usage priced near even odds, traders are split. If Powell discusses financial conditions, especially regional bank lending or commercial real estate stress, “credit” could easily come up.
‘Uncertainty’ (93¢ | 92%)
Why Powell could say it: Economic uncertainty is central to the Fed’s cautious stance. Powell often references “uncertainty” when explaining a wait-and-see approach.
Market analysis: Very likely. This term is a staple in Fed speak when the path of inflation or labor market resilience is unclear. High probability Powell uses it to justify policy patience.
‘Cut’ (94¢ | 92%)
Why Powell could say it: With investors betting on rate reductions as early as September, Powell may be asked directly whether a “cut” is on the table and under what conditions.
Market analysis: Very likely. Even if Powell avoids committing to a timeline, he’ll likely acknowledge discussions around potential cuts, making this a near-lock mention.
‘Projection’ (45¢ | 46%)
Why Powell could say it: The Fed’s economic projections shape expectations and guide markets. Powell may reference recent updates or clarify future assumptions.
Market analysis: Probable. While “projection” is common during Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meetings, its use in non-SEP meetings is less guaranteed, but still possible, especially if Powell comments on forward guidance.
‘Renovation’ (23¢ | 19%)
Why Powell could say it: Trump visited the Fed building last week to check the renovation project, which supposedly costs $2.5 billion.
Market analysis: Unlikely. Though a hot topic, terms unrelated to the economic outlook rarely get mentioned at the meeting.
Wildcard Terms: ‘Trump,’ ‘Resign,’ and ‘Fort Knox’
Wild cards and long shot mentions
Some traders are betting on wildcards that are long shots but not impossible. Contracts on these terms could pay off big if they are uttered.
Trump (15¢) – Unlikely. Powell usually avoids political references.
Resign (23¢) – Very slim chance. But if Powell gets the question, even denying it could activate this long-shot contract.
Fort Knox (2¢) – Complete long shot. But with volatility rising around political narratives and gold prices, some traders are quietly holding this as a lottery-ticket play.
Rate cut speculation remains muted
For now, economic conditions look largely unchanged from earlier this year. Job growth continued in June, though at a slower pace. Inflation has eased from earlier highs but remains above the Fed’s 2% target, with tariffs potentially keeping it elevated.
The Fed’s policy rate remains between 4.25% and 4.5%, though, officials have indicated they expect to lower it twice by the end of 2025.
Markets anticipate the Fed may act soon. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 62% probability of a September rate cut, when the Fed will have two more jobs reports to assess the labor market’s strength.
Still, some economists argue that a September cut might be premature, or may not come at all. Most expect Powell to reiterate the Fed’s familiar stance: future moves will be guided by incoming data.
While traders expect Powell to acknowledge economic uncertainties, prediction markets show minimal expectations for immediate rate cuts. The 95% probability of maintaining current rates suggests traders see the Fed holding steady despite mounting economic pressures.
