Why Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden Rally Won’t Hurt His Election Odds

Polls and prediction markets haven't reacted negatively to Trump's controversial Madison Square Garden rally—and likely won’t, if history is any guide

Listen to this article now

On Oct. 27, Donald Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden. It included racist remarks from the opening comedian through the speakers who would likely form members of a future Trump cabinet.

 

Roast comedian Tony Hinchcliffe joked that Puerto Rico is a “floating pile of garbage,” and riffed based on Hispanic, Black, Jewish, and Palestinian stereotypes. Stephen Miller, a former Senior Advisor to Trump and the architect of strict Trump-era immigration policies, said that “America is for Americans only.”

Mainstream media outlets aren’t the only sources of condemnation. Trump’s own surrogates and supporters have distanced themselves from similarly racist and nativist remarks made throughout the MSG rally. Still, polls and prediction markets haven’t moved against Trump in response to this event. Trump remains a favorite across top prediction market platforms and polls remain deadlocked in key swing states.

Why Trump is immune from shame

Trump has perfected a playbook for dealing with widespread media condemnation. Arlie Russell Hochschild spelled the playbook out near the end of her book, Stolen Pride. 

 

The cycle begins with an outrageous statement from Trump, followed by media backlash. Trump then casts himself as a victim and shames and blames those who try to shame him.

 

For example, Trump’s “Mexicans are rapists” remarks during his 2015 campaign announcement garnered widespread condemnation. NBC and the Miss America and Miss Universe pageants severed ties with Trump over his statements. After that, Trump cast himself as the victim by bemoaning the loss of those partnerships:

If NBC is so weak and so foolish to not understand the serious illegal immigration problem in the United States, coupled with the horrendous and unfair trade deals we are making with Mexico, then their contract-violating closure of Miss Universe/Miss USA will be determined in court.

The playbook doesn’t prevent Trump’s critics from shaming him for his worst remarks, policies, and ideas. However, the anti-shame playbook bonds Trump with his followers. 

 

Hochschild’s book takes place in Pikeville, Kentucky, which lies in the second most conservative district in the United States. It’s an area that used to power the country with its coal mines but has long since lost its jobs and opportunities to globalization and newer greener technologies. When Trump hits back at his shamers, his followers see their own bully fighting against their enemies. It’s as effective in 2024 as it was in 2015. 

 

The outrageous statements and the media backlash have already occurred in response to Trump’s campaign rally. Trump’s response may not be known at the time of this writing, but the response of his partisans and his critics are already clear. 

 

Prediction Platforms

Kalshi

Deposit $100 Get an Extra $20

Who will win the 2024
US Presidential Election?

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..