One of Donald Trump’s unpredictable staff picks is Kash Patel for FBI director. Kalshi’s FBI director market opened on Nov. 15, 2024. Patel was already in discussion for the director position, so his odds opened at 52%. Patel bottomed out at 30% and peaked at about 76%.
Trading volume in the FBI director market is just under $1.7 million, which is small by Cabinet market standards. The Secretary of Defense market is over $4.5 million, and the HHS Secretary market has reached over $7.7 million.
Patel is a Trump loyalist who has pledged to not only protect Trump from prosecution but also to go after media figures who “lied about American citizens” and “helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections.” Trump’s preference for personal loyalty over experience continues to yield surprising nominations, often favoring dark horse candidates over established names.
Loyalty and surprises
During his first term, Donald Trump faced investigations into his campaign’s connections to Russia, including an FBI probe and a special counsel investigation following his dismissal of FBI Director James Comey. Patel’s nomination signals Trump’s intent to avoid comparable investigations in his second term.
Trump also appears to value Patel’s media savvy, a trait he has sought in past nominees such as Pete Hegseth, Matt Gaetz, and Kristi Noem. Trump’s Cabinet picks are people who may be light on experience but who have strong public-facing charisma.
Unlike conventional government appointees—who are typically well-known to Washington insiders and Capitol Hill journalists—Trump’s preferences can be harder to track.
It’s no wonder that there’s a roughly one-in-five chance that the Senate confirms an FBI director who has not been listed in prediction markets yet.
