Although controversy surrounds some of Trump’s Cabinet nominees, the president-elect is poised to have his Cabinet confirmed in record time. Once Trump chooses nominees, the Senate must hold hearings to question them. Then the full Senate will vote on whether nominees can take their positions.
In the next session of Congress, Republicans will have a 53-47 majority. While Trump’s most controversial nominees, like Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., have some work to do to prevent Republican defectors, prediction markets are confident his more traditional choices will get through the confirmation process without issue.
Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi forecast a 28% chance that the Senate will confirm all 18 of Trump’s Cabinet nominees by March 1. The same market implies a 71% chance that at least 15 of the picks will receive confirmation during that span.
How Trump could supercharge Senate confirmations
The Senate committees have most of January to conduct hearings while the FBI completes its background checks on the nominees. Once those two steps are finished, the Senate proceeds to vote on the nominees.
Trump also made swift Cabinet confirmations a condition for supporting a Republican Senate Majority Leader. Given the outsized role personal loyalty plays in the Republican Party, this Senate is uniquely motivated to confirm Trump’s nominees quickly.
For example, Senator Rand Paul, who chairs the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, pledged to “get them [Trump’s Cabinet nominees] through as quickly as possible.”
Trump is distrustful of the Senate’s role to offer “advice and consent” to the president about his nominees. He was frustrated with appointees from his first term who resisted his commands, as reported by the Brookings Institution.
During the Mueller investigation about possible Trump campaign coordination with Russia, Trump ordered White House Counsel Donald McGahn and Chief of Staff Reince Priebus to have Mueller removed, but they refused. Trump’s counsel, Pat Cipollone, refused Trump’s order to take a 2020 election case to the Supreme Court…When top economic adviser Gary Cohn recalled how he removed decision papers from the president’s desk, he said: ‘It’s not what we did for the country. It’s what we saved him from doing.
Some of Trump’s commands were illegal, but that didn’t make him less angry about being undermined by his closest advisors. Consequently, Trump’s slate of nominees is dominated by loyalists like Kristi Noem and Kash Patel.
With a loyal Senate and champions in both chambers, Trump could have much of his Cabinet confirmed in the first 60 days of his term – some of whom may receive confirmation even before Trump takes office.
