Some Polymarket traders are upset after a market asking whether or not Tesla’s robotaxi service would launch publicly before July resolved to “No.” The source of anger for many of the traders is Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who, on June 19, responded to an X post showing that Polymarket had the chance of a public launch happening before July 1 at 14%.
Musk replied to the post by simply stating, “Money-making opportunity,” which caused a spike in “Yes” contract purchases.
Money-making opportunity
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 19, 2025
Pre-July robotaxi launch market odds surge after Musk comment
Polymarket’s “Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?” market opened in late-May with odds of the launch occurring within that time frame at 29%, following Musk’s confirmation that the robotaxis would be on the streets of Austin, Texas by the end of June. Those odds briefly jumped to 32.5% as news reports suggested testing in Austin would begin soon.
In late-May, Polymarket even included a note on the market saying “Tesla Announces Robotaxi Launch,” with a link to X posts about the subject and a Grok (X’s AI service) summary stating that “Tesla has announced the launch of its autonomous Robotaxi service, set for June 12.” The Grok integration is part of Polymarket’s partnership with X that was announced in early June.
By the start of June, odds in favor of a pre-July launch had fallen to 18.5%. The odds fluctuated throughout June with any news related to the robotaxi testing. But on June 19, the odds shot up to an all-time high of 39.5% in response to Musk’s “Money-making opportunity” post, which was also spotlighted by Grok on Polymarket.
But after the Musk post, the odds fell to 10.5% and, despite a few small rebounds, continued falling through the end of the month. The market closed in early July, resolving to “No” after attracting nearly $12 million in trade volume.
Polymarket rules state test drives don’t qualify
Some Polymarket traders who bought “Yes” shares in the wake of Musk’s post were upset about being misled. In the comment section of the market, one user wrote:
“I’m literally going to try and sue Elon. The guy held all the (cards) on whether this bet resolved to yes or no.”
But the robotaxi launch market should serve as a warning to all prediction market traders to fully read the criteria required for a market to resolve to “Yes.” Some traders (and perhaps also Musk?) appeared to think that the market would resolve to “Yes” simply because the robotaxis were giving rides in Austin.
But the key market criterion is that test drives with invite-only participants (which was the case in Austin) wouldn’t count as a public launch. The rules state:
A program that is restricted to Tesla employees, invite-only testers, closed-beta participants, factory self-delivery features, or the mere release of Full Self-Driving software for private owner-drivers will not qualify.
While some traders disputed the robotaxi launch outcome resolution, this case is different from the recent controversy over the resolution of a Polymarket market for whether or not Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit before July. That market did not clearly lay out what qualified as “a suit,” so many traders insisted Zelenskyy’s outfit at a June NATO summit meeting qualified. The robotaxi market had more precisely defined criteria.
Polymarket has two additional Tesla robotaxi launch markets. As of July 7, the one for whether or not the robotaxi will publicly launch before August has 16% odds of resolving to “Yes,” while the odds of a launch occurring before the end of the year sit at 44%, after reaching a high of 86% a couple of times in June. The same criteria used for the pre-July market is still in place.
Musk statements not always reliable indicator of future outcome
Another lesson from this pre-July robotaxi launch market is to always weigh the credibility of sources that provide information which may influence your trades at prediction markets.
On the surface, Musk would obviously have inside information about his own companies’ various activities. But Musk also has a history of bold predictions that ultimately don’t meet intended deadlines, including timelines for SpaceX launching to Mars, the development of the high-speed Hyperloop transportation system, and the release of more affordable Tesla models.
Besides thoroughly examining each market’s criteria, Musk’s reliability is something to keep in mind when considering trades on the plentiful other Elon-related prediction markets, not only on Polymarket, but also on prediction trading platforms like Kalshi.
