The 2025 Grammys are arriving in February but the nominations have caused an uproar on which artist deserves which award. Regardless if you’re a major music fan or not, you’ve probably heard someone bemoaning their favorite artist’s Grammy snub.
We all have our own Grammy predictions but how many of us are actually betting on it? For various Grammy categories, you can bet on Kalshi for your favorite pick.
One of the big four categories at the Grammys is the Best New Artist. It’s a fairly controversial category given the complicated rules surrounding what qualifies an artist as “new” —
A "new artist" is defined for the GRAMMY process as any performing artist or established performing group who releases, during the eligibility year, the recording that first establishes the public identity of that artist or established group as a performer. A GRAMMY nomination in a performance category in a prior year disqualifies an artist from competing in this category, unless the nomination came from a single or a guest spot on another artist's recording, and the artist hadn't yet released a full album.
When looking at this year’s Grammys, who do you think has the highest chance? Many people think the top two choices would be Sabrina Carpenter and Chappel Roan. Let’s break it down.
Sign up on Kalshi to bet on the Grammys— click here!
** All numbers are as of Nov. 12, 2024.
Best New Artist Grammy Nominees
Sabrina Carpenter
- Spotify Monthly Listeners: 77 million
- Instagram Followers: 42 million
- TikTok Followers: 33 million
- Current Chance of Winning: 61%
- Spotify # of Songs Over 100 Million Listens: 21
- Espresso – 1.5 billion
- Nonsense – 1 billion
- Please Please Please – 996 million
- On My Way – 727 million
- Feather – 725 million
- Taste – 506 million
- Looking at Me – 320 million
- Thumbs – 307 million
- because i liked a boy – 282 million
- Bed Chem – 279 million
- Sue Me – 252 million
- Skin – 206 million
- Good Graces – 167 million
- Why – 165 million
- Juno – 161 million
- Hands – 140 million
- Read your Mind – 130 million
- emails i can’t send – 127 million
- Let Me Move You – 113 million
- Coincidence – 108 million
- Vicious – 108 million
At this year’s Grammys, Sabrina Carpenter was nominated for the first time and received six nominations. She received her first No. 1 on Billboard’s Hot 100 with “Please Please Please” and her first No. 1 on Billboard 200 with her album, “Short n’ Sweet.”
After opening on Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and her viral “Nonsense” outros, her popularity grew and created a perfect moment for her new single, “Espresso” to soar. Quickly, she became the new it girl of the pop world.
With her first three top-five singles all at the top five simultaneously, she became the first solo act to do so and only the second act after the Beatles. Carpenter then went on her own stadium tour where she registered more voters with the non-profit HeadCount than any other artist in 2024. Her newfound popularity has led to partnerships with luxury brands like Prada, along with a Netflix Christmas special.
Chappell Roan
- Spotify Monthly Listeners: 42 million
- Instagram Followers: 5.4 million
- TikTok Followers: 4 million
- Current Chance of Winning: 37%
- Spotify # of Songs Over 100 Million Listens: 10
- Good Luck, Babe! – 934 million
- HOT TO GO! – 429 million
- Red Wine Supernova – 322 million
- Pink Pony Club – 290 million
- Casual – 252 million
- Femininomenon – 177 million
- My Kink Is Karma – 162 million
- Naked In Manhattan – 112 million
- Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl – 109 million
- After Midnight – 100 million
Chappell Roan is nominated for the first time this year and has been nominated in six categories. None of her songs have reached the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100, however, “Good Luck, Babe!” reached the No. 4 spot on the Hot 100. Her debut album, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” reached the No. 2 spot on the Billboard 200.
And Roan’s fame has exploded this year. From Sept. 2023 when Roan released her album to June 2024, her listens skyrocketed. In Sept. 2023, she had 423,000. After the release of “Good Luck, Babe!” and performing at Gov Ball, her numbers had increased 20-fold – 68.36 million streams in a week!
In Aug. 2024, Roan broke records with her Lollapalooza set. A festival spokesperson told CNN – “Chappell’s performance was the biggest daytime set we’ve ever seen.” At the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards, Roan won Best New Artist.
More Best New Artist Grammy Nominations
Benson Boone
- Spotify Monthly Listeners: 47 million
- Instagram Followers: 3.5 million
- TikTok Followers: 7.2 million
- Current Chance of Winning: 2%
- Spotify # of Songs Over 100 Million Listens: 7
- Beautiful Things – 1.5 billion
- In The Stars – 892 million
- Slow It Down – 525 million
- Ghost Town – 451 million
- Cry – 139 million
- Before You – 129 million
- NIGHTS LIKE THESE – 114 million
Shaboozey
- Spotify Monthly Listeners: 27 million
- Instagram Followers: 3.5 million
- TikTok Followers: 789.1 thousand
- Current Chance of Winning: 2%
- Spotify # of Songs Over 100 Million Listens: 2
- A Bar Song (Tipsy) – 897 million
- Start a Riot – 151 million
Raye
- Spotify Monthly Listeners: 27 million
- Instagram Followers: 2 million
- TikTok Followers: 1.5 million
- Current Chance of Winning: 2%
- Spotify # of Songs Over 100 Million Listens: 10
- Escapism. – 889 million
- Prada – 758 million
- You Don’t Know Me – 639 million
- BED – 499 million
- Secrets – 415 million
- By Your Side – 392 million
- Escapism. – 292 million
- Stay (Don’t Go Away) [feat. Raye] – 123 million
- Ferrari Horses – 115 million
- Regardless – 104 million
Teddy Swims
- Spotify Monthly Listeners: 41 million
- Instagram Followers: 7.1 million
- TikTok Followers: 7.9 million
- Current Chance of Winning: <1%
- Spotify # of Songs Over 100 Million Listens: 3
- Lose Control – 1.2 billion
- The Door – 308 million
- All That Really Matters – 107 million
Doechii
- Spotify Monthly Listeners: 14 million
- Instagram Followers: 980 thousand
- TikTok Followers: 1.4 million
- Current Chance of Winning: <1%
- Spotify # of Songs Over 100 Million Listens: 2
- What It Is (Solo Version) – 336 million
- What It Is (Block Boy) (with Kodak Black) – 113 million
Khruangbin
- Spotify Monthly Listeners: 6 million
- Instagram Followers: 893 thousand
- TikTok Followers: 1,961
- Current Chance of Winning: <1%
- Spotify # of Songs Over 100 Million Listens: 3
- Texas Sun – 282 million
- People Everywhere (Still Alive) – 127 million
- White Gloves – 115 million
Past Best New Artist Grammy Winners
| Year | Winner | Nominees |
| 2010 | Zac Brown Band | Keri Hilson
MGMT Silversun Pickups The Ting Tings |
| 2011 | Esperanza Spalding | Justin Bieber
Drake Florence and the Machine Mumford & Sons |
| 2012 | Bon Iver | The Band Perry
J. Cole Nicki Minaj Skrillex |
| 2013 | Fun | Alabama Shakes
Hunter Hayes The Lumineers Frank Ocean |
| 2014 | Macklemore & Ryan Lewis | James Blake
Kendrick Lamar Kacey Musgraves Ed Sheeran |
| 2015 | Sam Smith | Iggy Azalea
Bastille Brandy Clark Haim |
| 2016 | Meghan Trainor | Courtney Barnett
James Bay Sam Hunt Tori Kelly |
| 2017 | Chance the Rapper | Kelsea Ballerini
The Chainsmokers Maren Morris Anderson .Paak |
| 2018 | Alessia Cara | Khalid
Lil Uzi Vert Julia Michaels SZA |
| 2019 | Dua Lipa | Chloe x Halle
Luke Combs Greta Van Fleet H.E.R. Margo Price Bebe Rexha Jorja Smith |
| 2020 | Billie Eilish | Black Pumas
Maggie Rogers Lil Nas X Lizzo Rosalía Tank and the Bangas Yolal |
| 2021 | Megan Thee Stallion | Ingrid Andress
Phoebe Bridgers Chika Noah Cyrus D Smoke Doja Cat Kaytranada |
| 2022 | Olivia Rodrigo | Arooj Aftab
Jimmie Allen Baby Keem Finneas Glass Animals Japanese Breakfast The Kid Laroi Arlo Parks Saweetie |
| 2023 | Samara Joy | Anitta
Omar Apollo Domi & JD Beck Latto Måneskin Muni Long Tobe Nwigwe Molly Tuttle Wet Leg |
| 2024 | Victoria Monét | Gracie Abrams
Fred Again Ice Spice Jelly Roll Coco Jones Noah Kahan The War and Treaty |
Who will win the 2025 Grammy for Best New Artist?
Chappell Roan and Carpenter are in a very similar boat this year. Both artists are nominated for the first time this year. Both are nominated six times and in the same six categories. Both have become fan favorites this past summer. Both performed at SNL this year. Both have seen extreme growth in their careers this past year.
Carpenter is the nominee with the most listened-to discography, the most songs with over 100 million listens on Spotify, a No. 1 song, and a No. 1 album. However, numbers aren’t everything.
If we were looking at charts as a determining factor, Shaboozey would be the most impressive because his song, “The Bar Song (Tipsy)” has been at the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100 for 17 non-consecutive weeks. But this is not the only factor the Recording Academy voters consider.
In fact, like the other categories, The Recording Academy can be very unpredictable with their choices. In 2011, Esperanza Spalding won the Grammy for Best New Artist. Her highest streaming song currently has 31 million listens on Spotify and she has 420,000 monthly listeners on Spotify. She beat out global sensations Drake and Justin Bieber – the same year Bieber released his hit song, “Baby.”
To be clear, Spalding may have been very deserving of the award but in comparison with these global artists – it is sometimes difficult to see what are the deciding factors for the award.
Especially since, typically, the biggest artist of the year wins. Just take a look at Olivia Rodrigo, Billie Eilish, Dua Lipa, fun., Sam Smith, and so on.
Words of wisdom for bettors – just because Carpenter and Roan have had incredible years – their win is not certain. As we’ve seen in the past, unexpected winners can emerge, making it difficult to predict the outcome with certainty. Keep an eye on the surprises and be ready for anything come Grammy night.
