PredictIt, a prediction market that offered limited options during the 2024 presidential election, may be staging a comeback.
On Dec. 17, the platform launched six new markets: four related to Trump’s Cabinet nominees and two on the upcoming gubernatorial races in New York and Virginia. They are the first new markets on PredictIt since the 2024 election.
New markets! https://t.co/9zYnZ0Ycol pic.twitter.com/6W4I8wWLW1
— PI (@PredictIt) December 17, 2024
PredictIt is an academic prediction market that operates under a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The no-action letter is a deal the CFTC made with PredictIt, allowing the platform to offer election markets with trader and position limits. In return, the CFTC would not take any enforcement actions against PredictIt for offering election contracts.
The CFTC withdrew that no-action letter in 2022 without explanation, sparking a legal saga in which the case was transferred from the Western Texas District Court to the D.C. District Court and back again. Because of the lawsuit, PredictIt paused listing new markets—making its return to market creation significant.
“We’re continuing to navigate our relationship with the CFTC as prediction markets move towards reasonable regulation,” PredictIt Director of Public Relations Lindsey Singer said.
“We always revamp our markets following major elections and we’re excited about the direction things are heading.”
New administration, more markets
PredictIt’s new Cabinet markets mark a return to the diverse political offerings the platform featured before its CFTC lawsuit.
In 2017, PredictIt offered a market on which Trump Cabinet member would leave first (Reince Priebus and John Kelly tied). The platform also offered a market on the outcome of New York City’s mayoral race.
PredictIt stopped offering markets like these to avoid further escalation with the CFTC. However, the incoming administration includes prediction market proponents. Elon Musk cited Polymarket in October 2024 to analyze the state of the presidential race, and members of Trump’s team reportedly turned to Kalshi’s election odds on election night. Notably, one of Trump’s potential picks to lead the CFTC sits on Kalshi’s Board of Directors.
A conservative head of the CFTC might settle with PredictIt, believing the agency overstepped its regulatory authority. Additionally, an out-and-out proponent of prediction markets could push new regulations that bolster the broader prediction market industry, including companies like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold.
The Trump administration will also include people with low faith in traditional institutions, such as legacy media and election polls. The growing appetite for alternative institutions among Trump’s followers and Cabinet appointments will likely benefit prediction markets.
Once PredictIt’s legal troubles end, it could offer new markets that stretch beyond election outcomes. Some of its old markets included topics like whether President Obama would have a veto overridden and the number of Ebola cases in the United States. By offering innovative markets, PredictIt will be more suited to compete with top prediction exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket.
With a new administration pursuing a passionate deregulatory agenda, PredictIt’s once-abundant market menu could return.
