Prediction markets are showing how President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House might reshape the Supreme Court again. Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, has already generated more than $100,000 in trades on how many Supreme Court justices the next president will confirm.
The market currently forecasts a 56% chance that two new justices will take the bench during Trump’s second term. Kalshi gives exactly one Supreme Court justice an 18% chance of being confirmed and a 14% chance that three will be confirmed. There’s only a 7% chance that no Supreme Court justices are confirmed under Trump this term.
Three of the Supreme Court justices are over 70 years old. Republicans have a Senate majority to confirm new justices – and a good chance of maintaining that majority in the 2026 midterms.
In 2017, the Republican Senate voted to confirm Supreme Court justices with majority votes instead of 60-vote supermajorities. (Harry Reid, the Democratic Majority Leader, lowered the threshold for other federal and judicial appointments in 2013.)
Trump confirmed three Supreme Court justices during his first term, all quickly confirmed by the Senate in under four months. Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation took the longest due to allegations of sexual assault raised during his hearings. Amy Coney Barrett’s was the shortest, with less than a month between her nomination and confirmation.
Kalshi’s market also has a good idea about who the new Supreme Court justices could be.
Next in line: McConnell’s favorite
Throughout his career as Senate Majority Leader, McConnell has focused on reshaping the judiciary. He saw 54 appeals judges confirmed in Trump’s first term – almost as many as Barack Obama nominated during his eight years in office.
One of those judges is another Kentuckian who McConnell has repeatedly tried to elevate to the Supreme Court: Amul Thapar.
According to Kalshi’s traders, Amul Thapar has the best chance of being the next Supreme Court justice should an opening occur. He’s a reliable conservative and enjoys a long history with McConnell.
Andrew Oldham is next in line. He was confirmed to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in 2018. During the 2024 presidential campaign, Oldham gave a speech decrying prosecutions of political candidates. Given Trump’s myriad legal troubles, Oldham would be an attractive choice for Trump to confirm.
As long as both men have a champion in McConnell, they have a strong chance of being Supreme Court nominees.
