The U.S. IPO market is hot again. When design‑software maker Figma made its long‑awaited debut at the end of July, shares opened at $85 and vaulted to $115.50 by the end of the first trading day – a 250% gain on the $33 offering price.
The stock held on to those gains through early August, whetting investors’ appetite for the next big listing. Yet most people never see a pre‑IPO allocation. Only large institutions and wealthy clients get invited to buy shares before trading starts.
Kalshi is trying to change that.
“While most of Silicon Valley is still locked out of IPO allocations, our team at Kalshi just unlocked a new way in,” co‑founder Tarek Mansour wrote on X July 31.
The company, already known for markets on the weather and macroeconomic events, has launched a series of IPO‑focused contracts that allow traders to speculate on if and when high‑profile startups will go public.
How Kalshi’s new IPO market contracts work
Like other prediction markets, Yes or No contracts based on IPOs cost between 1¢ and 99¢ based on implied probability of the event occurring. Correct contracts pay out $1 each while incorrect ones pay out nothing.
On the general IPO contract titled “Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?”, the rules clarify that a company must either have its Form S‑1 declared effective by the SEC, have its IPO priced, or be assigned a ticker by an exchange for the market to resolve to “yes.” Sources include outlets such as The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and Reuters.
What the markets are saying
One of Kalshi’s IPO markets asks which private tech companies will formally announce an IPO before year‑end. According to a July 31 snapshot compiled by Business Insider (via AOL), bettors gave the following odds: Here are some current odds and pricing at time of writing (afternoon of Aug. 5).
- Klarna: 81¢ (83%) – Swedish “buy‑now‑pay‑later” fintech paused its filing in March but could resume plans in September.
- Discord: 41¢ (41%) – Popular chat platform is considered a likely IPO candidate after Reddit’s 2024 debut.
- Cerebras Systems: 37¢ (38%) – AI‑chip maker benefiting from enthusiasm for generative‑AI plays.
- Databricks: 33¢ (30%) – Big‑data firm has been viewed as an IPO contender for several years.
- Stripe: 17¢ (15%) – Payments giant postponed its listing last year, but investors continue to watch.
These percentages will fluctuate as traders buy and sell, but they show where collective expectations currently stand following Figma’s blockbuster listing. Klarna clearly tops the list, while Strip (last raised money at a $91.5 billion valuation) is still seen as a long‑shot to go public by year’s end.
Time‑based markets for individual companies
Beyond the general “announcement by year‑end” contract, Kalshi offers contracts with specific deadlines.
For SpaceX, traders can bet on whether Elon Musk’s rocket company will announce an IPO before a series of future dates.
A separate market on Starlink, the Musk‑controlled satellite‑internet operator, assigns 25% odds (25¢) of an IPO announcement by June 30, 2027.
A third time‑based market asks when Discord will go public. The market shows a 54% probability on a Discord IPO announcement by Feb. 1, 2026, with “yes” contracts at 56¢. Odds rise modestly for dates later in 2026, implying that traders see the chat‑app’s IPO as more likely to slip into the first half of next year or later.
A broader slate of IPO bets
Kalshi’s “New IPO Markets” page on its demo site (a viewable version of the live exchange) shows just how far the company is taking the concept. Alongside markets for Stripe and Discord, there are contracts on startups such as AppsFlyer, Anduril, Brex, Deel, Glean, Rippling, Olipop and even beverage brand Happy Dad.
Each card offers yes/no contracts on whether the company will announce an IPO by Sept. 1 or Oct. 1, 2025. Other markets ask whether anyone will acquire AI companies like Anthropic or Perplexity this year, reflecting the platform’s willingness to turn Silicon Valley gossip into tradable events.
What traders should keep in mind when trading IPO markets
Prediction markets can be a fun way to express an opinion, but they are not the same as actually buying stock in an IPO. Kalshi reminds users that each contract is capped at $1 and that traders risk losing their entire stake.
Liquidity can also be thin: at the time of writing, the SpaceX and Discord markets had volumes of just over $400 and $1,800 respectively. That means prices might swing widely as new bets come in.
The broader takeaway is that Kalshi has given retail speculators a regulated avenue to wager on one of the most exclusive segments of the capital markets.
While it won’t deliver the windfalls that Figma’s early investors just enjoyed, it allows anyone to turn their hunch about the next big IPO into a trade. As the platform’s co‑founder put it, it’s an attempt to “unlock a new way in.”
