What to know:
- The social media embargo has been lifted and early reviews seem mostly positive.
- As of Dec. 11, Kalshi bettors forecast a predicted Rotten Tomatoes score of 71.
- Barry Jenkins, the film’s director, has a strong Rotten Tomatoes track record, with all three of his films scoring above 85.
The Lion King world continues to expand with the latest movie, Mufasa: The Lion King. This movie features stars like Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Donald Glover, and Seth Rogen.
The original Disney animated movie The Lion King is a favorite for many, and now many Kalshi bettors are placing bets on the latest movie’s Rotten Tomatoes score. While the movie will come out on Dec. 20, betting began on Nov. 25.
The current forecasted Rotten Tomatoes score is 71. At its highest point, users predicted 74, and at its lowest, 50.5. The market already has a trading volume of $196, 073. The numbers are bound to change in the next week and a half, so here’s what you need to know before betting on Mufasa: The Lion King.
What is ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’?
You’d think describing a children’s movie would be easy to explain but Mufasa: The Lion King is a bit complicated. It’s a prequel and sequel to The Lion King (2019). It jumps between the origin story of characters, Mufasa and Taka, to Mufasa and Nala’s granddaughter Kiara.
While Beyoncé Knowles-Carter reprises her role as Nala from the 2019 photoreal CGI remake of The Lion King, her real-life daughter Blue Ivy Carter makes her feature film debut voicing Kara.
The official synopsis of the latest photoreal CGI Disney movie is:
Exploring the unlikely rise of the beloved king of the Pride Lands, "Mufasa: The Lion King" enlists Rafiki to relay the legend of Mufasa to young lion cub Kiara, daughter of Simba and Nala, with Timon and Pumbaa lending their signature schtick.
The film was developed in 2020 and officially announced at the 2022 D23 Expo. The movie had its official LA premiere on Dec. 9, 2024.
Jay-Z and Beyoncé hype up daughter Blue Ivy on the red carpet at the LA premiere of ‘Mufasa: The Lion King.’ ❤️ pic.twitter.com/4hN97jMwMt
— Entertainment Tonight (@etnow) December 10, 2024
Past critical reception of ‘Lion King’ movies
There are multiple factors you need to consider when taking a look at this movie. Not only is it part of the larger Lion King franchise, but it’s also another photorealistic CGI movie.
All three of the original Lion King animated movies are “Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes. Unsurprisingly, the original was the most well-received, however, the 2019 photorealistic CGI remake of the movie was not liked by many critics.
Most of the reviews said the film was gorgeous and visually impressive but the story lacked the heart the original one was famous for. It’s a reminder that a beautiful visual style is not enough to carry a film’s critical reception. A similar sentiment was shared about the new “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” – a beautiful style but the story could use some work.
The Lion King (2019) was also the only Lion King film to receive a “Rotten” score on Rotten Tomatoes. Despite being poorly received, the film went on to gross $1.6 billion at the box office and become the second-highest-grossing film of 2019.
But maybe this film can improve on The Lion King (2019). The social media embargo has already been lifted and the reviews seem mostly positive so far.
One critic described the film as “epic, exciting, and visually spectacular,” while another praised it for addressing “the aspects that didn’t work in the 2019 remake.”
There won’t be any official reviews released until the review embargo is lifted on Dec. 17. In the meantime, you can use the social media reviews as a helpful early indication.
Wow!! @BarryJenkins and @Lin_Manuel blew the roof off at the #Mufasa - The Lion King premiere tonight. Epic, exciting and visually spectacular, I can’t wait to see it again. Beautiful harmonies and counterpoint courtesy of LMM. Cinematography and animation was next level.… pic.twitter.com/CcRPeplHs9
— Jared Bush (@thejaredbush) December 10, 2024
How have Disney’s photorealistic movies performed in the past on Rotten Tomatoes?
It’s definitely hard to categorize a movie like Mufasa: The Lion King. It’s not live-action but also not traditional animation either. The photorealistic CGI is used to make it look very real.
But while there are no humans in The Lion King (2019) or Mufasa: The Lion King, Disney’s past attempts at this use a mix of both. The Jungle Book (2016) had one real person but the rest were animals created with CGI. This film received an impressive Rotten Tomatoes score of 94%.
There are other movies where the Disney film prominently featured a CGI character but had many real people in it. For example, Dumbo (2019) featured the CGI elephant but performed poorly with critics – a Rotten Tomatoes score of 46%.
The films using this style have had an uneven Rotten Tomatoes score history. These past results only further emphasize a visually beautiful movie is not enough to earn a “Fresh” score.
Barry Jenkins' Rotten Tomatoes history
Barry Jenkins is the film’s director and is best known for directing and screenwriting the Oscar-winning Moonlight. He won the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay. His Rotten Tomatoes history could be a sign of strength for the movie. All of his score-eligible movies achieved a score of 85 or higher.
If you are making your bets on the director’s past history, it is definitely a strong sign. However, in a recent interview with Vulture, Jenkins said CGI-directing is “not my thing.” He continues to say, “ I want to work the other way again, where I want to physically get everything there.”
While this may just mean he wouldn’t want to work in this medium again, it may indicate a certain struggle with directing this format. It gives reason for bettors to be more cautious with their bets.
Lion King’s (2019) critical reception is certainly not a positive indication; however, a strong story and director can turn things around. Early social media reviews are already saying this new film was able to correct the mistakes of the original.
Keep an eye on social media and upcoming reviews to gauge the growing consensus. This could be Disney’s chance to reclaim the magic of the Pride Lands.
