Zohran Mamdani wasn’t the only one surprised by his primary victory over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Much of the Democratic Party was surprised, and now its most influential members must grapple with Mamdani’s place within it.
Commercial prediction market platform Kalshi gives Mamdani an 80% chance of becoming New York City’s mayor, with Yes contracts currently priced at 81¢. The current mayor, Eric Adams, was accused of accepting illegal donations from foreign nationals in exchange for administrative favors when he took office.
The Department of Justice dropped the charges against Adams after he agreed to cooperate with the Trump administration on deportation, but the sting of scandal has stuck. Adams’ approval rating hit a low of 20% in March and his odds of re-election currently sit at 7% (7¢).
It’s looking likely Mamdani could come to hold an office that catapulted him into the national spotlight during the Democratic Mayoral primary. What is less likely at this point is which Democrats will endorse him.
Slow endorsements so far for Mamdani
Mandani has called for building state-owned grocery stores to decrease grocery prices. He has also called for rent freezes, nationalizing utility companies, raising the minimum wage to $30 per hour, and promised to protect reproductive rights and make NYC a sanctuary city for undocumented immigrants.
His platform includes popular economic policies and hostility to private businesses that other Democrats are trying to distance themselves from. So, Democrats are continuing to hold him at arm’s length.
Kalshi traders give a few prominent Democrats less than 50% probability of endorsing Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral race. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (43% | 43¢) met with Mamdani in July. Politico reported that while Mamdani hoped for an endorsement, he left with “the promise of another meeting.”
One of the reasons Kamala Harris lost in 2024, according to analysts, was Harris being perceived as holding positions too far left for many voters. A Brookings analysis of the 2024 election found that Trump’s attacks on Harris’ positions on transgender issues “helped weaken Harris’ effort to portray herself as a common-sense center-left candidate rather than an emissary from San Francisco.”
As the party focuses on moving to the center, they must grapple with a highly visible democratic socialist in Mamdani.
Economic populism may bind the Democrats
Even as top Democrats avoid anything that sounds like “socialism,” they may embrace some of the faction’s most popular economic ideas. Some of the most popular economic messages from the 2024 race included:
- Lower grocery prices
- Higher wages
- Wealthy paying their fair share of taxes
State-run grocery stores may not be the solution to these problems, but voters in New York City responded to someone willing to offer disruptive solutions to pressing pocketbook issues.
One of the challenges for 2028 Democratic presidential candidates will be striking a balance between the economic policies they believe in without coming off as too hostile to private industry or private financial success. It’ll be a delicate dance for a party recovering from a resounding loss, even if they’re favored to regain the House in the midterms.
