Everyone wants to know who will win the 2024 presidential race so they can sleep soundly again. There are a few early indicators — what we may now call election betting trends — that people have gravitated to each election cycle:
- Callum County, WA
- Iowa Caucuses
- Allan Lichtman’s Keys to the White House
- Washington Commanders Record
- Olympics Host
Some of these trends are based on serious reflections of voter sentiment and electoral history. Others are ridiculous but fun. Here’s what you need to know about these future-telling events.
Election betting trends
Callum County, WA
Callum County’s voters have voted for the presidential winner in every election since 1976. It’s a small rural county in northwest Washington. Although Washington is a reliably blue state, this politically active rural county seems to produce a balanced electorate that can capture political views across the United States.
Iowa Caucuses
Some analysts point to the Iowa caucuses to try to predict either the party’s nominee or the presidential victor. Iowa’s track record is poor on both counts. Since 1976, 11 Iowa caucus winners out of 19 became their party’s nominee – four out of nine Republicans and seven out of 10 Democrats.. Only three candidates won the general election after winning in Iowa – two Democrats and one Republican.
Allan Lichtman’s Keys to the White House
Dubbed “Nostradamus” in the press, Lichtman is a historian who created a model that uses the state of the world to predict the election winner. His 13 Keys to the White House predicted every presidential race since 1984 except for one. Lichtman predicted a Harris victory in September 2024 and stood by his prediction on Oct. 28.
Washington Commanders Record
From 1936 to 2000, the Washington Redskins’ victories at their last pre-election home games “predicted” the presidential election outcome. If the Redskins won, the incumbent party would keep the White House and would vacate it if the Redskins lost.
That pattern was broken in 2004, 2012, 2016, and 2020. The former Redskins and current Commanders’ win streak was a fun accidental correlation, but it’s been over for 20 years.
Olympics Host
During the 2016 presidential race, Politico reported that since 1968 – and with only one exception – the country hosting the Summer Olympics has been correlated with the presidential victor. If the Summer Olympics host country has hosted the Olympics before, then the incumbent party has remained in the White House.
France hosted the 2024 Summer Olympics and has hosted the Olympics five times previously. Based on that measure, a Harris victory is around the corner. In reality, basing a presidential prediction on the Olympic host is wishful thinking.
