This year, sports fans can do more than just vote on the ESPY Awards — they can win money predicting the winners.
Kalshi has opened markets on all 22 fan-voted categories, giving traders a chance to buy and sell positions on every potential upset and runaway favorite along the way. The 2025 ESPYs will air Wednesday, July 16 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC (and streamed live on ESPN+).
Before you start trading on ESPY markets, here are 10 quick insights that will hopefully tilt the odds your way.
Disclaimer: The following information is intended to provide helpful insights for traders. It is not trading or financial advice.
The ESPYs are fan-driven
Since 2004 the ESPYs have been decided by global online fan voting, with the ESPY Select Nominating Committee merely curating the short-list of nominees for each category. Anyone can weigh in—one ballot per category, per day—right up until a few hours before showtime.
This setup means that winners aren’t necessarily chosen on the merits, but often the ceremony turns into a popularity contest, where digital reach, social followings, and mobilization efforts can topple stat-sheet favorites (sorry, UNC Women’s Lacrosse).
Generally speaking, traders can find an edge by shorting or avoiding big favorites while finding viable underdogs to build their portfolios.
Similar processes have produced huge upsets this year
You don’t have to dig deep to find massive upsets in other categories with similar voting processes. During the American Music Awards, Billy Eillish won Song of the Year despite trading as low as 6¢ and Eminem shocked traders when he won Favorite Male Hip-Hop Artist after trading as low as 1¢.
The same script played out at this summer’s BET Awards, which had a hybrid system split between professional voters and the public: Jalen Hurts stole Sportsman of the Year from odds-on favorite Saquon Barkley.
College award tilts toward football
In the Best Male College Athlete category, 12 of the 22 winners have been football players—more than every other sport combined.
The last time hoops broke through was nearly a decade ago, when Oklahoma sharpshooter Buddy Hield claimed the trophy in 2016.
Quarterbacks rule—can Barkley break streak?
Much like the league’s MVP award, the ESPY for Best NFL Player overwhelmingly goes to quarterbacks. In fact, nine of the last 10 winners were signal-callers, with Patrick Mahomes going back-to-back in 2023 and 2024.
Yet this year’s ESPY market is topped by Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley who is the odds-on-favorite. If the market is right, he’d become the first running back to win since Adrian Peterson in 2013.
Barkley wasn’t the MVP in New Orleans, but his teammate, Jalen Hurts, isn’t a candidate, leaving Barkley as the only Super Bowl winner to vote for. The other nugget is a bad sign for longshot Denver Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain.
Take all of that information for what you will. If you think voters stick with the QB script, then you can grab Lamar Jackson and/or Josh Allen at bargain prices. If you’re convinced Barkley’s monster season and ring will earn the fan vote, be ready to pay a premium.
Ohtani looks for fifth straight ESPY
No shock here: Best Baseball Player has turned into the Shohei Ohtani show. The two-way sensation swept 2022, 2023, and 2024, and is a massive favorite again, surging beyond 90¢.
The hurdle seen around the world
It wasn’t a game-winner, and it came in an otherwise forgettable Week 9 matchup against the 2-6 Jaguars—but Saquon Barkley’s backwards hurdle lit up the internet. Across YouTube, TikTok, and X the clip has reached millions, dwarfing every other Best Play nominee.
NFL and NBA combine for 16 Best Team awards
NFL and NBA champions have hoarded 16 of the Best Team trophies, proving primetime spotlight plus massive fan bases is a potent one-two punch combo. Meanwhile, baseball has broken through only twice—the 2004 curse-busting Red Sox and 2018 Astros—while the NHL still awaits for its taste of ESPY glory.
The lone collegiate coup came just last year, when South Carolina’s Gamecocks women’s basketball squad rode an undefeated season to the stage. There is another undefeated team on the ballot this year, but it’s unlikely college lacrosse can move the needle.
USWNT is undefeated when nominated, but recency bias favors Thunder
Among the most interesting ESPY trends I found is that the U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team (USWNT) is 2-for-2 when nominated for Best Team. But there’s a caveat: In each case the victory followed a World Cup win rather than an Olympic run, a distinction that likely matters.
The World Cup lands squarely in the voting window. The team lifted the trophy on July 5, 2015 and July 7, 2019, with the taste of victory still fresh for voters. This time their marquee moments arrived last August, nearly 12 months ago, so it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder who are beneficiaries of recency bias — and the market prices it that way.
Only four non-Americans have won Men’s Best Athlete
The most recent was Shohei Ohtani in 2022, and before that, Alexander Ovechkin and Giannis Antetokounmpo won in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
NBA or NFL players have won 15 of the 20 trophies since the ballot went fully fan-voted, while baseball, hockey and golf have managed just two wins each.
Ezra Frech has 419,000 TikTok Followers
The two-time Paralympian won a pair of gold medals in the 2024 Summer Paralympics. When he’s not competing, he’s a motivational speaker, disability rights advocate, and frequently posts on TikTok where his videos have received 18.8 million likes. On Instagram, Frech has more than 250,000 followers. His popularity and following could help with ESPY award voting.
