A joint Department of Justice and FBI memo saying convicted sex offender and accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein didn’t keep a “client list” and suggesting that no more evidence from the Epstein investigation will be released has led to backlash from some supporters of President Donald Trump. The announcement has also had a ripple effect on prediction market platforms, as multiple markets — some obvious, others less so — have seen odds shift in light of the news.
Top prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have been promoting their Epstein-related markets fairly heavily on social media ever since the memo news first broke earlier this week.
Feb 21: “The Epstein files are going to be released” -AG Pam Bondi
July 6: “Jeffrey Epstein had no client list and committed suicide” -FBI and DOJ pic.twitter.com/4xUAHl1slE
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) July 7, 2025
Polymarket promotes markets for Epstein files release
The DOJ and FBI memo released on July 6 appeared to pour cold water on conspiracy theories largely emanating from Trump’s MAGA base that suggested that the government was in possession of an Epstein “client list” that would implicate rich and powerful people that were somehow involved in the late financier’s alleged crimes.
These conspiracy theories have been fueled by members of Trump’s own administration, including Attorney General Pam Bondi, who earlier this year said the “client list” was sitting on her desk.
The failure to release more findings from the Epstein investigation has led some to suggest a coverup, either by Bondi or potentially even Trump himself.
Polymarket has several recently-added prediction markets directly related to the Epstein investigation, including:
- Will Trump release more Epstein files before August?
- Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?
- Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? (for if files include any mention of Trump)
- Missing Epstein cell footage released before August?
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Trump release more Epstein files this year?
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 9, 2025
Epstein files odds shift with conflicting reports
The odds at Polymarket that more files would be released by August actually briefly spiked in the wake of the DOJ/FBI memo news, going from 4.5% to 15.4% on July 7 before plummeting to 2.9%. Odds that the files will be released sometime this year (in the market that opened July 8) were as high as 32% before landing at 21% on July 10.
At Kalshi, users can also trade whether or not any new Epstein files will be publicly released in 2025. Kalshi’s market opened on May 2 and odds that files would be released were at nearly 50% a few days later. But as news spread about the memo, those odds dropped from 32% to 14.9%. The market has attracted more than $4 million in trading volume since opening.
Epstein news also impacts indirectly-related prediction markets
That’s the only market on Kalshi in which the name “Epstein” appears in the title, but there are some other markets at both Kalshi and Polymarket that were also affected by the DOJ/FBI memo. Both platforms have some of those markets compiled in their own “Epstein” subsections.
A lot of the MAGA ire over the Esptein announcement has been directed at AG Bondi. Soon after the memo’s release, both Polymarket and Kalshi began promoting their markets about the possibility of Bondi leaving her position on social media.
NEW KALSHI MARKET: PAM BONDI OUT AS ATTORNEY GENERAL? pic.twitter.com/4YTUnjsUB6
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) July 7, 2025
In the Kalshi market created this week related to Bondi leaving her position before the end of 2025, “Yes” odds steadily rose throughout the week, getting as high as 27% (as of July 10, they were at 23%). Kalshi has been sharing odds movements in the market on X.
Kalshi also has a market for which Trump cabinet members will leave their position in 2025. Odds of Bondi leaving this year jumped from 9% to as high as 23.3% following the Epstein memo. Meanwhile, a Kalshi market for which cabinet member would be the first to leave saw odds in favor of Bondi jump from 2% to as high as 15.2%.
On July 9, Polymarket posted on X about its market for whether or not Trump will resign this year, saying odds “surged” following the latest Epstein investigation news. Odds did indeed go up on July 6, but only from 4.5% to 4.6%. Over the next few days, the odds fell to 3.8%.
JUST IN: The odds of Trump resigning this year have surged, after he refused to release the Epstein list.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) July 9, 2025
Polymarket also has an Epstein market that wades directly into conspiracy theory waters. Users can trade on whether or not evidence will emerge this year showing that Epstein and partner Ghislaine Maxwell were “Mossad operatives,” a reference to Israel’s national intelligence agency. This market is based on allegations promoted by Alex Jones and other fringe conspiracy theorists.
Reactionary odds provide potentially profitable trading opportunities
While a ripple effect can sometimes be seen in various economic prediction markets, the latest Epstein announcement shows how current event news can also sway odds on indirectly related markets.
These reactionary odds movements can provide a good opportunity for traders who are paying attention to get in at a good price before those markets fully react.
