Tulsi Gabbard has been accused of being a Russian asset, but she may lead the U.S. intelligence community.
Trump nominated Gabbard for director of national intelligence (DNI). If confirmed, Gabbard would be in charge of the President’s Daily Brief, a daily summary of national security issues the president must confront. Her previous parroting of Russian talking points and her 2017 visit with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad have raised concerns about her fitness for a high-level intelligence role from Democrats and Republicans.
Polymarket only gives Gabbard a 65% chance of being confirmed by the Senate. Kalshi’s market on how specific senators will vote shows why. Republican stalwart Mitch McConnell only has a 44% chance of voting “yes” on Gabbard.
With a 53-47 majority, Trump nominees can’t afford to lose more than two Republican senators. Kalshi gives Trump a 79% chance of formally nominating Gabbard to the DNI position. If her nomination is withdrawn, then the market will settle to “no” on each of the senators.
Reuters reported that eight Republican senators had misgivings about Gabbard’s nomination. Kalshi has listed four of the senators named in the Reuters article: Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and John Curtis. Thom Tillis isn’t listed in that article, but he has a market available on Kalshi. A sixth Republican senator, Roger Wicker, doesn’t have prices listed but is still worth watching.
Mitch McConnell
- YES – 44% (+127)
- NO – 64% (178)
Each of these nominees needs to come before the Senate and go through the process and be vetted.
Senator Meeting: Gabbard has been meeting with Republican senators to gather support before her confirmation hearings. It’s unclear whether McConnell has met with Gabbard himself.
Vote History: While McConnell has verbally disagreed with Trump, McConnell’s vote history is in line with Trump’s wishes. McConnell voted to confirm all three Supreme Court nominees and voted against convicting Trump in both impeachments.
Best Bet: If Gabbard’s confirmation makes it to a Senate vote, McConnell is a likely yes.
Lisa Murkowski
- YES – 22% (+355)
- NO – 82% (-456)
Thank you for your time, @lisamurkowski. It was great seeing you again. I appreciated our discussion about civil liberties protections, the unique challenges facing our home states of Alaska and Hawaii, and other critical national security concerns.
Senator Meeting: Murkowski met with Gabbard on Dec. 17.
Vote History: Murkowski hasn’t put out a statement about her meeting with Gabbard. However, she voted against Trump’s wishes during her first term. She voted “present” for Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation and voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial. If Murkowski has reservations, she will vote accordingly.
Best Bet: The best bet is to bet on a “no” from Murkowski if Gabbard makes it to a Senate vote.
Susan Collins
- YES – 22% (+355)
- NO – 86% (-614)
It was a very broad and wide-ranging discussion.
Senator Meeting: Collins met with Gabbard on Dec. 17.
Vote History: Collins is a Republican from a blue state, so her voting record is mixed. She voted to confirm Trump’s first two Supreme Court nominees but also voted to convict him in his second impeachment trial. She’s willing to vote against the pressure of the president if it suits her.
Best Bet: The best bet is to bet “no” on Susan Collins. Gabbard may not make it to a vote, but Collins can cast herself as a defense hawk if she votes against Gabbard.
John Curtis
- YES – 45% (+122)
- NO – 63% (-170)
I think what’s easy to forget is there is an amazing process in place, and this process evolves over time, and there’s a lot of looking into people’s backgrounds and things they’ve said.
Senator Meeting: Curtis has not made a statement about meeting with Gabbard yet.
Vote History: Curtis is the newly elected senator from Utah. He replaced Mitt Romney, one of the most prominent Trump critics in the Republican Party. Curtis came from the House of Representatives, so he has a limited voting record. Politico reported that he voted against both Trump impeachment charges and called for Trump’s censure after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Curtis’ voting record matches Trump’s preferences more than past statements.
Best Bet: The best bet is to vote “yes” on Curtis’ vote if Gabbard makes it to a full Senate vote.
Thom Tillis
- YES – 68% (-213)
- NO – 43% (+133)
I don’t think I have ever voted in opposition to anyone who came out of that … committee with an affirmative vote, and, therefore, I’m going to put deference in the committee process.
Senator mMeeting: Tillis has not released a statement regarding a meeting with Gabbard.
Vote History: In an article pinned to his X account, Tillis said that he would vote for any candidate who the relevant Senate committees recommended for confirmation. Tillis criticized the pressure campaign against senators to confirm nominees without FBI background checks or hearings. But for all his concern about pressure from Trump fans, Tillis has said he’d support Pam Bondi for Attorney General and Kash Patel for FBI director. Tillis’ support for Ukraine aid and hostility to Russia may not prevent him from supporting Gabbard for DNI.
Best Bet: The best wager on Tillis is a “yes” vote in a full Senate vote on Gabbard’s nomination.
Roger Wicker
- No market listed
Senator Wicker's suggestion that we should consider carrying out a nuclear first strike against Russia exposes just how ignorant, insane, and sadistic he and other like-minded warmongers are.
Senator Meeting: Wicker has not announced a meeting with Gabbard.
Vote History: Senator Wicker is one of the most passionate defenders of Ukraine in the Republican Party. In 2021, Gabbard attacked Wicker as a “sociopath” over Wicker’s support for U.S. aggression against Russia before it invaded Ukraine. Wicker has voted for Ukraine aid and to certify the 2020 election results. However, Wicker also voted against convicting Trump for charges of inciting the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Best Bet: If Gabbard gets a full Senate vote, bet on Wicker deferring to Trump and voting “yes.”
Tulsi Gabbard predictions
If Gabbard gets a full Senate vote, then this is how the toss-up senators are likely to vote:
- Mitch McConnell – Yes
- Lisa Murkowski – No
- Susan Collins – No
- John Curtis – Yes
- Thom Tillis – Yes
- Roger Wicker – Yes
However, if Gabbard withdraws from the confirmation process, then each of the markets on individual senators will resolve to “no.”
After Matt Gaetz withdrew from the Attorney General nomination process, Trump doubled down on his remaining nominees. Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, and RFK, Jr. have been courting senators to secure support before their confirmation processes begin in January. Republican senators are also under greater pressure to defer to Trump and his remaining choices.
If Trump continues pushing Gabbard, she will likely get at least 51 votes. Republican senators are broadly supportive of Trump’s agenda and want to see his nominees confirmed. Even though McConnell is no longer the Republican Senate Leader, the Republicans still have almost two decades of discipline. They vote as a block to advance their political interests. John Thune may not be McConnell, but it’d be surprising to see that discipline evaporate too quickly.
Collins and Murkowski were the biggest toss-ups in Trump’s first term. Many of the other mavericks of the Senate either retired or lost re-election for key votes against Trump. In a prediction market on whether a Republican senator will bend to Trump’s pressure, betting on Trump’s influence campaign is more reliable than counting on Republican senators to go against Trump’s wishes.
| SENATOR | STATE | PARTY | LIKELY VOTE |
| Ruben Gallego | Arizona | Democrat | No |
| Mark Kelly | Arizona | Democrat | No |
| Adam Schiff | California | Democrat | No |
| Alex Padilla | California | Democrat | No |
| John Hickenlooper | Colorado | Democrat | No |
| Michael Bennet | Colorado | Democrat | No |
| Chris Murphy | Connecticut | Democrat | No |
| Richard Blumenthal | Connecticut | Democrat | No |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | Delaware | Democrat | No |
| Chris Coons | Delaware | Democrat | No |
| Jon Ossoff | Georgia | Democrat | No |
| Raphael Warnock | Georgia | Democrat | No |
| Mazie Hirono | Hawaii | Democrat | No |
| Brian Schatz | Hawaii | Democrat | No |
| Dick Durbin | Illinois | Democrat | No |
| Tammy Duckworth | Illinois | Democrat | No |
| Angela Alsobrooks | Maryland | Democrat | No |
| Chris Van Hollen | Maryland | Democrat | No |
| Elizabeth Warren | Massachusetts | Democrat | No |
| Ed Markey | Massachusetts | Democrat | No |
| Debbie Stabenow | Michigan | Democrat | No |
| Gary Peters | Michigan | Democrat | No |
| Amy Klobuchar | Minnesota | Democrat | No |
| Tina Smith | Minnesota | Democrat | No |
| Jacky Rosen | Nevada | Democrat | No |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | Nevada | Democrat | No |
| Jeanne Shaheen | New Hampshire | Democrat | No |
| Maggie Hassan | New Hampshire | Democrat | No |
| Bob Menendez | New Jersey | Democrat | No |
| Cory Booker | New Jersey | Democrat | No |
| Martin Heinrich | New Mexico | Democrat | No |
| Ben Ray Luján | New Mexico | Democrat | No |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | New York | Democrat | No |
| Chuck Schumer | New York | Democrat | No |
| Jeff Merkley | Oregon | Democrat | No |
| Ron Wyden | Oregon | Democrat | No |
| John Fetterman | Pennsylvania | Democrat | No |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Rhode Island | Democrat | No |
| Jack Reed | Rhode Island | Democrat | No |
| Peter Welch | Vermont | Democrat | No |
| Tim Kaine | Virginia | Democrat | No |
| Mark Warner | Virginia | Democrat | No |
| Maria Cantwell | Washington | Democrat | No |
| Patty Murray | Washington | Democrat | No |
| Tammy Baldwin | Wisconsin | Democrat | No |
| Angus King | Maine | Independent* | No |
| Bernie Sanders | Vermont | Independent* | No |
| Tommy Tuberville | Alabama | Republican | Yes |
| Katie Britt | Alabama | Republican | Yes |
| Dan Sullivan | Alaska | Republican | Yes |
| Lisa Murkowski | Alaska | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Tom Cotton | Arkansas | Republican | Yes |
| John Boozman | Arkansas | Republican | Yes |
| Rick Scott | Florida | Republican | Yes |
| Marco Rubio | Florida | Republican | Yes |
| Jim Risch | Idaho | Republican | Yes |
| Mike Crapo | Idaho | Republican | Yes |
| Jim Banks | Indiana | Republican | Yes |
| Todd Young | Indiana | Republican | Yes |
| Joni Ernst | Iowa | Republican | Yes |
| Chuck Grassley | Iowa | Republican | Yes |
| Roger Marshall | Kansas | Republican | Yes |
| Jerry Moran | Kansas | Republican | Yes |
| Mitch McConnell | Kentucky | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Rand Paul | Kentucky | Republican | Yes |
| Bill Cassidy | Louisiana | Republican | Yes |
| John Kennedy | Louisiana | Republican | Yes |
| Susan Collins | Maine | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Roger Wicker | Mississippi | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | Mississippi | Republican | Yes |
| Josh Hawley | Missouri | Republican | Yes |
| Eric Schmitt | Missouri | Republican | Yes |
| Tim Sheehy | Montana | Republican | Yes |
| Steve Daines | Montana | Republican | Yes |
| Deb Fischer | Nebraska | Republican | Yes |
| Pete Ricketts | Nebraska | Republican | Yes |
| Thom Tillis | North Carolina | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Ted Budd | North Carolina | Republican | Yes |
| Kevin Cramer | North Dakota | Republican | Yes |
| John Hoeven | North Dakota | Republican | Yes |
| Bernie Moreno | Ohio | Republican | Yes |
| J.D. Vance | Ohio | Republican | Yes |
| Markwayne Mullin | Oklahoma | Republican | Yes |
| James Lankford | Oklahoma | Republican | Yes |
| Dave McCormick | Pennsylvania | Republican | Yes |
| Lindsey Graham | South Carolina | Republican | Yes |
| Tim Scott | South Carolina | Republican | Yes |
| Mike Rounds | South Dakota | Republican | Yes |
| John Thune | South Dakota | Republican | Yes |
| Marsha Blackburn | Tennessee | Republican | Yes |
| Bill Hagerty | Tennessee | Republican | Yes |
| Ted Cruz | Texas | Republican | Yes |
| John Cornyn | Texas | Republican | Yes |
| John Curtis | Utah | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Mike Lee | Utah | Republican | Yes |
| Jim Justice | West Virginia | Republican | Yes |
| Shelley Moore Capito | West Virginia | Republican | Yes |
| Ron Johnson | Wisconsin | Republican | Yes |
| John Barrasso | Wyoming | Republican | Yes |
| Cynthia Lummis | Wyoming | Republican | Yes |
