After fears of his nomination being torpedoed, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appears likely to be confirmed by the Senate.
Kennedy was an environmental lawyer and a vaccine conspiracist. He believes vaccines cause autism, claims which have been debunked since the 1998 study alleging a connection was withdrawn. Kennedy ran as a Democrat in the presidential primary until Oct. 9, 2023 when he started running as an Independent. On Aug. 23, 2024, he suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed Trump.
Trump nominated Kennedy to be the Secretary of Health and Human Services. The HHS Secretary oversees the CDC, Medicaid and Medicare programs, and coordinates federal and state responses to health emergencies. Polymarket gives Kennedy a 72% chance of being confirmed by the Senate.
Kalshi’s market on specific senators only shows a few hesitant Republicans. Despite his pro-choice views, Kennedy matches the populist mood that helped bring Trump back to power.
A few influential senators will still decide Kennedy’s fate: Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell, and John Curtis. Bill Cassidy is a likely yes vote, but like McConnell, he’ll be among the most influential behind the scenes.
Susan Collins
- YES – 25%
- NO – 84%
I anticipate having ample opportunity to question him and learn more about his views.
Senator Meeting: Collins has not released a statement about a meeting with Kennedy.
Vote History: In the first two years of Trump’s first term, Collins voted in line with his positions 77% of the time. She only voted in line with his views 44% in the last two years of his first term. As a Republican senator from a blue state, Collins needs room to vote against some Republican positions.
Expert Pick: The best bet on Collins is “no” on RFK Jr. She sits on the health panel that will hear his initial confirmation hearings, and voting against his anti-vax positions could be useful in her 2026 Senate campaign.
Lisa Murkowski
- YES – 27%
- NO – 78%
Add Your Heading Text Here
As she has done throughout her time in the Senate, she will determine on a case-by-case basis whether they are the right fit to successfully serve Alaska and our nation.
Senate Meeting: Murkowski met with Kennedy on Dec 19. She did not release a statement about the meeting.
Vote History: Murkowski voted with Trump about 73% of the time. Like Collins, she voted in line with Trump more in the first half of his first term than his second. Murkowski voted in line with Trump about 82% of the time in Trump’s first two years and about 58% of the time in his next two.
Expert Pick: The best bet is to vote “no” on Murkowski. Like Collins, she’s willing to vote against Trump and has political reasons to push back against some Republican policy choices.
Mitch McConnell
- YES – 62%
- NO – 43%
Efforts to undermine public confidence in proven cures are not just uninformed — they’re dangerous. Anyone seeking the Senate’s consent to serve in the incoming Administration would do well to steer clear of even the appearance of association with such efforts. Sen. McConnell in response to Kennedy’s resurfaced petition to revoke FDA approval of the polio vaccine. (Dec. 15, 2024)
Senate Meeting: McConnell has not released a statement regarding a meeting with Kennedy.
Vote History: McConnell voted in line with Trump’s wishes 91% of the time in Trump’s first term. During the first two years, McConnell voted in line with Trump 95% of the time. McConnell voted in line with Trump only 88% of the time in Trump’s third and fourth years.
Expert Pick: The best bet is to vote “yes” on McConnell.
John Curtis
- YES – 63%
- NO – 45%
The Senate’s constitutional duty is to advise and give consent to the President and I intend to take that duty seriously, raise points that either strengthen the case for the candidate or raise questions for confirmation hearings, and ensure that Utahns’ voices are heard throughout this process. Sen. Curtis (Dec. 17, 2024)
Senate Meeting: Curtis has not released a statement about a meeting with Kennedy.
Vote History: When he was in the House of Representatives, Curtis voted in line with Trump 91% of the time. Curtis went from voting with Trump 96% of the time in Trump’s first two years to 91% in the next two.
Expert Pick: The best bet is to bet “yes” on Curtis.
Bill Cassidy
- YES – 75%
- NO – 27%
So I know that sounds novel around here, but I would like to talk to him…it ‘seems like a lot of stories are being written, and I have to make sure that I form my opinion on my own. Bill Cassidy quote to The Independent.
Senate Meeting: Cassidy will meet with Kennedy after Kennedy’s meeting with the Republican Health Education Labor and Pensions committee staff.
Vote History: Cassidy voted in line with Trump about 89% of the time over Trump’s first term. There was a large difference between the two halves of Trump’s first term. In Trump’s first two years, Cassidy voted in line with Trump 94% of the time. During the next two years, Cassidy voted in line with Trump 83% of the time.
Expert Pick: The best bet is a “yes” from Cassidy after the Senate process has run its course.
Betting on RFK Jr.
If Kennedy makes it to a full Senate vote, the key senators as they stand now will likely vote this way:
- Susan Collins – No
- Lisa Murkowski – No
- Mitch McConnell – Yes
- John Curtis – Yes
- Bill Cassidy – Yes
Kennedy spent most of his career as an activist and a lawyer. He supported environmental causes, but he also spent decades profiting from promoting conspiracies about vaccine safety and vaccines’ connection to autism.
Kennedy has also promoted abortion policies that are out of step with pro-life Republicans. During his presidential campaign, Kennedy endorsed abortion restrictions before the first trimester, then no restrictions, then abortion restrictions after fetal viability. He also proposed reducing the number of abortions by using Ukraine aid money to subsidize daycare.
His popularity came from his messaging about hidden government forces infringing on individual liberties. Kennedy accused the Biden administration of censoring social media sites through “an entire censorship industrial complex.” In his hostility toward elites, Kennedy found common cause with Trump supporters and, eventually, Trump himself.
As Trump’s controversial Cabinet nominees continue courting senators, Kennedy’s nomination seems increasingly likely–especially as the remaining Republican moderates eye 2026 re-election campaigns.
| SENATOR | STATE | PARTY | LIKELY VOTE |
| Ruben Gallego | Arizona | Democrat | No |
| Mark Kelly | Arizona | Democrat | No |
| Adam Schiff | California | Democrat | No |
| Alex Padilla | California | Democrat | No |
| John Hickenlooper | Colorado | Democrat | No |
| Michael Bennet | Colorado | Democrat | No |
| Chris Murphy | Connecticut | Democrat | No |
| Richard Blumenthal | Connecticut | Democrat | No |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | Delaware | Democrat | No |
| Chris Coons | Delaware | Democrat | No |
| Jon Ossoff | Georgia | Democrat | No |
| Raphael Warnock | Georgia | Democrat | No |
| Mazie Hirono | Hawaii | Democrat | No |
| Brian Schatz | Hawaii | Democrat | No |
| Dick Durbin | Illinois | Democrat | No |
| Tammy Duckworth | Illinois | Democrat | No |
| Angela Alsobrooks | Maryland | Democrat | No |
| Chris Van Hollen | Maryland | Democrat | No |
| Elizabeth Warren | Massachusetts | Democrat | No |
| Ed Markey | Massachusetts | Democrat | No |
| Debbie Stabenow | Michigan | Democrat | No |
| Gary Peters | Michigan | Democrat | No |
| Amy Klobuchar | Minnesota | Democrat | No |
| Tina Smith | Minnesota | Democrat | No |
| Jacky Rosen | Nevada | Democrat | No |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | Nevada | Democrat | No |
| Jeanne Shaheen | New Hampshire | Democrat | No |
| Maggie Hassan | New Hampshire | Democrat | No |
| Bob Menendez | New Jersey | Democrat | No |
| Cory Booker | New Jersey | Democrat | No |
| Martin Heinrich | New Mexico | Democrat | No |
| Ben Ray Luján | New Mexico | Democrat | No |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | New York | Democrat | No |
| Chuck Schumer | New York | Democrat | No |
| Jeff Merkley | Oregon | Democrat | No |
| Ron Wyden | Oregon | Democrat | No |
| John Fetterman | Pennsylvania | Democrat | No |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Rhode Island | Democrat | No |
| Jack Reed | Rhode Island | Democrat | No |
| Peter Welch | Vermont | Democrat | No |
| Tim Kaine | Virginia | Democrat | No |
| Mark Warner | Virginia | Democrat | No |
| Maria Cantwell | Washington | Democrat | No |
| Patty Murray | Washington | Democrat | No |
| Tammy Baldwin | Wisconsin | Democrat | No |
| Angus King | Maine | Independent* | No |
| Bernie Sanders | Vermont | Independent* | No |
| Tommy Tuberville | Alabama | Republican | Yes |
| Katie Britt | Alabama | Republican | Yes |
| Dan Sullivan | Alaska | Republican | Yes |
| Lisa Murkowski | Alaska | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Tom Cotton | Arkansas | Republican | Yes |
| John Boozman | Arkansas | Republican | Yes |
| Rick Scott | Florida | Republican | Yes |
| Marco Rubio | Florida | Republican | Yes |
| Jim Risch | Idaho | Republican | Yes |
| Mike Crapo | Idaho | Republican | Yes |
| Jim Banks | Indiana | Republican | Yes |
| Todd Young | Indiana | Republican | Yes |
| Joni Ernst | Iowa | Republican | Yes |
| Chuck Grassley | Iowa | Republican | Yes |
| Roger Marshall | Kansas | Republican | Yes |
| Jerry Moran | Kansas | Republican | Yes |
| Mitch McConnell | Kentucky | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Rand Paul | Kentucky | Republican | Yes |
| Bill Cassidy | Louisiana | Republican | Toss-Up |
| John Kennedy | Louisiana | Republican | Yes |
| Susan Collins | Maine | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Roger Wicker | Mississippi | Republican | Yes |
| Cindy Hyde-Smith | Mississippi | Republican | Yes |
| Josh Hawley | Missouri | Republican | Yes |
| Eric Schmitt | Missouri | Republican | Yes |
| Tim Sheehy | Montana | Republican | Yes |
| Steve Daines | Montana | Republican | Yes |
| Deb Fischer | Nebraska | Republican | Yes |
| Pete Ricketts | Nebraska | Republican | Yes |
| Thom Tillis | North Carolina | Republican | Yes |
| Ted Budd | North Carolina | Republican | Yes |
| Kevin Cramer | North Dakota | Republican | Yes |
| John Hoeven | North Dakota | Republican | Yes |
| Bernie Moreno | Ohio | Republican | Yes |
| J.D. Vance | Ohio | Republican | Yes |
| Markwayne Mullin | Oklahoma | Republican | Yes |
| James Lankford | Oklahoma | Republican | Yes |
| Dave McCormick | Pennsylvania | Republican | Yes |
| Lindsey Graham | South Carolina | Republican | Yes |
| Tim Scott | South Carolina | Republican | Yes |
| Mike Rounds | South Dakota | Republican | Yes |
| John Thune | South Dakota | Republican | Yes |
| Marsha Blackburn | Tennessee | Republican | Yes |
| Bill Hagerty | Tennessee | Republican | Yes |
| Ted Cruz | Texas | Republican | Yes |
| John Cornyn | Texas | Republican | Yes |
| John Curtis | Utah | Republican | Toss-Up |
| Mike Lee | Utah | Republican | Yes |
| Jim Justice | West Virginia | Republican | Yes |
| Shelley Moore Capito | West Virginia | Republican | Yes |
| Ron Johnson | Wisconsin | Republican | Yes |
| John Barrasso | Wyoming | Republican | Yes |
| Cynthia Lummis | Wyoming | Republican | Yes |
