The weekend has come and gone, and there’s plenty to trade across prediction markets to start your week.
From TikTok bans to NFL head coaching vacancies and everything in between, here are five markets to watch, whether you’re a casual bettor, a serious trader, or simply an observer turning to prediction markets as a more reliable source of news.
This article was originally published on Friday, Dec. 6, 2024, but has been updated on Monday to reflect current prediction market prices and news.
TikTok ban gains steam
The market: Will the US Ban TikTok before 2026?
Insights: The probability of a TikTok ban before 2026 has surged to 54% on Kalshi, following a Dec. 6 federal appeals court decision to uphold the “divest-or-ban” law that could lead to the banning of the controversial, Chinese-owned social media platform. As of Monday, the forecast is a virtual coin flip at 49%.
Prices/odds: YES (49¢), NO (54¢)
Trading volume and open interest: With only $36,000 in trading volume and $1,600 in open interest at the time of this writing, it isn’t the most liquid market.
Apparently, TikTok has already cracked down on employees using prediction markets to hedge against the company’s potential fate.
TikTok employees getting in trouble for betting that their company will get banned 🤡 pic.twitter.com/cEgQBlcvBG
— Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld_) August 28, 2024
Pardons and prediction markets
The market: Who will Biden pardon?
Insights: President Joe Biden’s controversial pardon for his son, Hunter, surprised prediction markets this week. Now, the Biden team is reportedly mulling over pre-emptive pardons for Anthony Fauci, Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney, and more ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office, in which the president-elected has signaled intentions of retribution to his political enemies.
Prices/odds:
- Anthony Fauci – YES (41¢), NO (60¢)
- Jim Biden – YES (46¢), NO (61¢)
- Liz Cheney – YES (40¢), NO (62¢)
- Adam Schiff – YES (25¢), NO (76¢)
Trading volume and open interest: So far, more than $600,000 has been traded across potential pardons, including Martha Stewart, Eric Adams, Edward Snowden, and Ghislaine Maxwell. As of Monday, there is nearly $500,000 in open interest, most of which is available on the high-profile, more plausible pardons for Trump’s political foes.
Defense secretary pick faces uphill battle
The market: Who will be Trump’s Secretary of Defense?
Insights: The most active Trump Cabinet market unquestionably surrounds his current, and again controversial, pick for defense secretary. Pete Hegseth faces an uphill battle for confirmation by the Senate, despite its incoming 53-seat Republican majority.
The Hill reports that as many as eight Republicans are considering voting against Trump’s pick, due to mounting allegations of misconduct, ranging from sexual assault, alcohol abuse, and workplace harassment. Hegseth has lobbied for support on Capitol Hill, and President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance doubled down on the pick Friday morning. Hegseth can only afford three Republican “no” votes.
Meanwhile, Florida Gov. Ron Desantis is the favorite to step in as Hegseth’s replacement, according to prediction markets.
Led by President Trump, we're fighting for Pete Hegseth. And we're doing so because Pete Hegseth wil fight for our troops.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) December 6, 2024
For too long, the Pentagon has been led by people who lose wars. Pete Hegseth is a man who fought in those wars.
We've got his back. pic.twitter.com/6n57SSQQ5X
Prices/odds:
- Pete Hegseth- YES (47¢), NO (54¢/-156)
- Ron Desantis – YES (33¢), NO (69¢);
- Elbridge Colby – YES (9¢), NO (93¢)
Trading volume and open interest: A whopping $7.5 million has been traded within this market as of Monday, Dec. 9, and there’s currently more than $2.5 million in open interest. Expect plenty of action throughout the weekend as speculation continues.
Upcoming Fed decision
The market: Number of rate cuts in 2024?
Insights: The Federal Reserve has already penciled in three cuts (75 bps) ahead of the December board meeting slated for Dec. 17-18. Following positive November labor market data, Kalshi traders forecast an 86% chance that Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will issue one more cut of 25 bps.
Prices/odds:
- 3 cuts or 75bps – YES (13¢), NO (89¢)
- 4 cuts or 100bps – YES (86¢), NO (15¢)
Trading volume and open interest: Kalshi users have traded $6.3 million throughout the year, and there’s nearly $2 million in open interest 10 days from the last FOMC meeting of 2024.
Chicago Bears look for new head coach
The market: Who will be the next Chicago Bears coach?
Insights: This is a new one for Kalshi, as the regulated prediction market platform has mostly steered away from sports, with the exception of a Bill Belichick head coaching market. Their foray into the category is a story for another time; if you’re a Bears fan, you just want to know who your next head coach will be, and my guess is you’ll be plenty happy to hear that Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is the current favorite. Other names include Thomas Brown, Mike Vrabel, and Bill Belichick, to name a few.
Prices/odds:
- Ben Johnson – YES (31¢), NO (71¢)
- Thomas Brown- YES (25¢), NO (75¢)
- Mike Vrabel – YES (14¢), NO (89¢)
Trading volume and open interest: This market has been open for less than a week, generating $10,000 in trades, with $8,000 in open interest.
