The Recording Academy has announced the 2025 Grammy Awards nominations and everyone is talking about it. Unsurprisingly, everyone is talking about which of the nominations are surprises and who’s been snubbed this year.
If we take a look at the Kalshi app, there were four markets predicting who would be nominated in the four big categories: Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Album of the Year, and Best New Artist.
What did Kalshi bettors get right and who did they completely miss? Let’s take a look.
Record of the Year
When reviewing Kalshi’s Record of the Year market, two key factors are who was being considered in the market and who emerged as the top contenders.
Here’s a rundown of the Kalshi market on Nov. 7 at 10 pm ET:
- Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) – 93%**
- Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) – 93%**
- Espresso (Sabrina Carpenter) – 92%**
- Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) – 91%**
- Texas Hold ‘Em (Beyoncé) – 88%**
- Fortnight (Talyor Swift ft. Post Malone) – 75%**
- Die With A Smile (Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars) – 74%
- Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) – 49%
- Too Sweet (Hozier) – 48%
- Saturn (SZA) – 26%
- Now and Then (The Beatles) – 25% **
- We Can’t Be Friends (Ariana Grande) – 23%
- Turn the Lights Back On (Billy Joel) – 11%
- Houdini (Dua Lipa) – 11%
** The markets with two asterisks next to them received a nomination.
Songs that received a nomination but were not part of the Kalshi market:
- 360 (Charli XCX)
This is how The Recording Academy defines Record of the Year:
Record Of The Year deals with a specific recording of a song and recognizes the artists, producers, and engineers who contribute to that recording
Record of the Year Surprises and Snubs
There were eight nominations and seven of the songs were included in this market. Six of them were the top six choices for getting a nomination. However, The Beatles’ song, “Now and Then” was only at 25%, and this nomination was surprising to most people.
One song that was missed in this Kalshi market but had a strong chance of being nominated was Charli XCX’s “360.” Not only did the term “Brat” summer (the album “360” is from) trend all over socials for the last several months but it was even featured in Kamala Harris’ election campaign.
Unsurprisingly to most music fans, but surprisingly to the Kalshi markets, “360” was nominated.
Song of the Year
When reviewing Kalshi’s Song of the Year market, two key factors are who was being considered in the market and who emerged as the top contenders.
Here’s a rundown of the Kalshi market on Nov. 7 at 10 pm ET:
- Not Like Us (Kendrick Lamar) – 89% **
- Good Luck, Babe! (Chappell Roan) – 86% **
- Birds of a Feather (Billie Eilish) – 84% **
- Texas Hold ‘Em (Beyoncé) – 82% **
- Fortnight (Talyor Swift ft. Post Malone) – 75% **
- Die With A Smile (Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars) – 74% **
- Too Sweet (Hozier) – 72%
- Beautiful Things (Benson Boone) – 71%
- We Can’t Be Friends (Ariana Grande) – 65%
- Please Please Please (Sabrina Carpenter) – 37% **
- A Bar Song (Shaboozey) – 24% **
** The markets with two asterisks next to them received a nomination.
This is how The Recording Academy defines Song of the Year:
Song Of The Year deals with the composition of a song and recognizes the songwriters who wrote the song.
Song of the Year Surprises and Snubs
Eight nominations were announced in this category and all eight were part of the Kalshi market. Six of them were the six most likely to get a nomination. However, the remaining two nominations were at the bottom of the list and least likely to get a nomination (“Please Please Please” and “A Bar Song”).
“Beautiful Things” was definitely a huge snub for Benson Boone. The song is one of the highest-streamed songs of the year. It also was expected to get a nomination because it has a similar build to Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever,” which also features a soft beginning before going into a loud chorus. “Happier Than Ever” was nominated for both Record and Song of the Year, while Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” got neither.
Similarly, “Too Sweet” is also one of the most streamed songs of this year. It was Hozier’s first No. 1 on the Billboard 100. Most people expected the song to receive at least one nomination but Hozier received zero nominations this year.
Album of the Year
When reviewing Kalshi’s Album of the Year market, two key factors are who was being considered in the market and who emerged as the top contenders.
Here’s a rundown of the Kalshi market on Nov. 7 at 10 pm ET:
- The Tortured Poets Department (Taylor Swift) – 95% **
- Hit Me Hard and Soft (Billie Eilish) – 94% **
- Cowboy Carter (Beyoncé) – 93% **
- Eternal Sunshine (Ariana Grande) – 75%
- Only God Was Above Us (Vampire Weekend) – 73%
- Deeper Well (Kasey Musgraves) – 60%
- What Now? (Brittany Howard) – 33%
- Higher (Chris Stapleton) – 31%
- Djesse No. 4 (Jacob Collier) – 23% **
- Radical Optimism (Dua Lipa) – 20%
- Scarlet (Doja Cat) – 18%
- Chronicles of a Diamond (Black Pumas) – 18%
- Autumn Variations (Ed Sheeran) – 12%
- Everything I Thought It Was (Justin Timberlake) – 12%
- Lasso (Lana Del Rey) – 5%
- Vultures Vol. 1 (Kanye West/Ty Dolla Sign) – 3%
** The markets with two asterisks next to them received a nomination.
Albums that received a nomination but were not available on Kalshi.
- BRAT (Charli XCX)
- New Blue Sun (André 3000)
- Short n’ Sweet (Sabrina Carpenter)
- The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (Chappell Roan)
Honor artistic achievement, technical proficiency and overall excellence in the recording industry, without regard to album sales, chart position, or critical reception.
Album of the Year Surprises and Snubs
Out of the big four categories, the prediction market bettors performed worst here. Only four of the nominations were even considered in the market. In this market, the top three most likely nominees were nominated but the fourth one (Jacob Collier’s “Djesse Vol. 4”) was only at 23%.
The other four winners were not even options in the market. Charli XCX, Sabrina Carpenter, and Chappell Roan were predictable nominees and were not a surprise to anyone.
However, no one expected André 3000’s New Blue Sun to be nominated. The album is André 3000’s first in 17 years and completely instrumental.
While Jacob Collier’s Djesse Vol. 4 was not highly predicted, his last album Djesse Vol. 3 was also nominated in this category.
Best New Artist
When reviewing Kalshi’s Best New Artist market, two key factors are who was being considered in the market and who emerged as the top contenders.
Here’s a rundown of the Kalshi market on Nov. 7 at 10 pm ET:
- Chappell Roan – 93% **
- Benson Boone – 91% **
- Sabrina Carpenter- 91% **
- Teddy Swims – 91% **
- Shaboozey – 87% **
- Raye – 77% **
- Sierra Ferrell – 46%
- Renee Rapp – 25%
- The Last Dinner Party – 24%
** The markets with two asterisks next to them received a nomination.
Artists that received a nomination but were not available on Kalshi:
- Doechii
- Khruangbin
This is how The Recording Academy defines Best New Artist:
A "new artist" is defined for the GRAMMY process as any performing artist or established performing group who releases, during the eligibility year, the recording that first establishes the public identity of that artist or established group as a performer. A GRAMMY nomination in a performance category in a prior year disqualifies an artist from competing in this category, unless the nomination came from a single or a guest spot on another artist's recording, and the artist hadn't yet released a full album.
Best New Artist Surprises and Snubs
There were eight nominations in this category and six of the eight were included in this market. The six most likely were the six that received a nomination. All six of these musicians had huge years and were unsurprising nominations.
However, both Doechii and Khruangbin were not included in the market but were nominated in the category. Doechii received three other nominations including a nomination for Best Rap Album.
Benson Boone, Khruangbin, and Teddy Swims all got only one nomination. The only surprise is for Beson Boone who was expected to get numerous nominations for his song, “Beautiful Things.”
Kalshi’s prediction markets for the 2025 Grammy Awards offered a glimpse into the nominations with varying degrees of accuracy. While some categories saw predictions line up closely with the final nominations, others were full of surprises and snubs.
In particular, Kalshi bettors successfully predicted many of the top contenders in categories like Record of the Year and Song of the Year, but missed some more obvious nominations like Charli XCX’s “360.”
With the nominations now in the rearview mirror, all that’s left is to count down to the Grammys on Feb. 2, 2025. Now, we’ll have to wait and see if bettors can accurately predict the winners.
