The Game Awards 2024 nominations were announced this past Monday. The biggest video game awards show is less than a month away, and the nominations include the top award, Game of the Year.
Kalshi bettors have been attempting to predict the nominees since Apr. 2024. While most of the nominees were predicted, there were a couple of surprises.
With the 10th “Oscars of gaming” fast approaching, you’ll find everything you need to know about this year’s Game Awards below.
Sign up on Kalshi to bet on The 2024 Game Awards — click here to get a $20 bonus!
How the Game Award nominees are chosen
The nominated games are chosen by over 100 media and influencer outlets. Each media outlet votes on their favorites and the favorites among the votes are nominated. And in terms of who wins, it’s a combination of the jury and the public vote. The international panel of media outlets makes up 90% of the vote and the fans’s votes make up 10% of the vote.
Game of the Year Nominees
Here’s a look at this year’s Game of the Year nominees and their current odds, accurate as of Nov. 19, 2024, on Kalshi.
Astro Bot
- Release Date: Sept. 6, 2024
- OpenCritic Score: 95/100
- Metacritic Score: 94/100
- IGN Score: 9/10
- GameSpot Score: 9/10
- Current Chance of Winning: 51%
The 3D platformer “Astro Bot” leads this year’s awards show with 7 nominations. The game was critically acclaimed for its creativity. As of Nov. 3, Sony announced “Astro Bot” had been sold 1.5 million times. It is currently ranked No. 55 in Metacritic’s “Best Games of All Time.”
The market for this game has been open since Jul. 16 and has been widely expected to receive the nomination. For the last 2 months, it has consistently been predicted to win this award at a 50% chance or higher.
Balatro
- Release Date: Feb. 20, 2024
- OpenCritic Score: 91/100
- Metacritic Score: 90/100
- IGN Score: 9/10
- GameSpot Score: 9/10
- Current Chance of Winning: 8%
The card game “Balatro” has four nominations this year and is the only indie game among the Game of the Year nominees. If it were to win the Game of the Year award, it would become the first indie game in the Game Awards 10-year history to win the top award.
One million copies of the game were sold within the first month and OpenCritic states 100% of critics recommend “Balatro.” This was an unexpected choice for Kalshi bettors because “Balatro” wasn’t even an available choice until after the nominations were announced.
Black Myth: Wukong
- Release Date: Aug. 20, 2024
- OpenCritic Score: 82/100
- Metacritic Score: 92/100
- IGN Score: 8/10
- GameSpot Score: 8/10
- Current Chance of Winning: 12%
The 2024 RPG “Black Myth: Wukong” was inspired by the Chinese book, “Journey to the West.” The game received five nominations and was able to sell 20 million copies in its first month – making it one of the fastest-selling games of all time.
It is the first AAA (big-budget and high-budget) game from a Chinese studio. This market has been open since April of this year and has been hovering in the high 10s — low 20s forecasted chance range.
Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree
- Release Date: Jun. 21, 2024
- OpenCritic Score: 94/100
- Metacritic Score: 94/100
- IGN Score: 10/10
- GameSpot Score: 10/10
- Current Chance of Winning: 9%
“Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree” is a DLC of the massively popular 2022 RPG, “Elden Ring.” The DLC received four nominations at this year’s Game Awards. However, many gamers were unsure if it would qualify. All of the discussions online prompted The Game Awards to update their FAQs and answer this question:
Are DLCs, expansion packs and remakes/ remasters eligible? The Game Awards aims to recognize the best creative and technical work each year, irrespective of the format of that content’s release. Expansion packs, new game seasons, DLCs, remakes and remasters are eligible in all categories, if the jury deems the new creative and technical work to be worthy of a nomination. Factors such as the newness of the content and its price/value should be taken into consideration.
The DLC was massively popular and sold five million copies in the first three days. But the confusion about its eligibility meant it wasn’t being bet on in the Kalshi market until after the nominations announcement.
Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth
- Release Date: Feb. 29, 2024
- OpenCritic Score: 93/100
- Metacritic Score: 92/100
- IGN Score: 9/10
- GameSpot Score: 8/10
- Current Chance of Winning: 29%
“Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth” is the second game in a planned trilogy recreating the original “Final Fantasy VII” and received six nominations. Unsurprisingly, it is the latest release in the massively popular “Final Fantasy” video game franchise.
Similar to 2020’s “Final Fantasy VII Remake,” the sequel received universal acclaim from critics. This market has been open since April of this year and has fluctuated more significantly than the others. It has ranged from a forecasted chance of 50% to 20%.
Metaphor: ReFantazio
- Release Date: Oct. 11, 2024
- OpenCritic Score: 92/100
- Metacritic Score: 94/100
- IGN Score: 9/10
- GameSpot Score: 10/10
- Current Chance of Winning: 16%
“Metaphor: ReFantazio” is the next game from Japanese game developer Atlus, the same company behind the popular Japanese RPG series “Persona.” Unlike “Persona’s” Japanese high school setting, “Metaphor: ReFantazio” takes place in the medieval world.
The game sold one million copies on its release date and was widely praised for handling topics like racism and discrimination. The game received six nominations. This market was also only launched after the nominations announcement.
Past Game of the Year Winners
| Year | Winner | Nominees |
| 2014 | Dragon Age: Inquisition |
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| 2015 | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt |
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| 2016 | Overwatch |
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| 2017 | The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild |
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| 2018 | God of War |
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| 2019 | Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice |
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| 2020 | The Last of Us Part II |
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| 2021 | It Takes Two |
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| 2022 | Elden Ring |
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| 2023 | Baldur’s Gate 3 |
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Who will win the 2025 Game of the Year award?
Currently, “Astro Bot” is in the lead on the Kalshi market for winning the Game of the Year award. However, with almost a month left to go and all nominations set – it’s still anyone’s game.
This is also a unique scenario where bettors can bet on their choice for Game of the Year but also can head over to the Game Awards site and vote on their choice as well.
In this race, there isn’t a clear winner but perhaps some of these are less likely to win. For example, “Elden Ring: Shadow of the Erdtree’s” nominations have already brought up some backlash because the game is a DLC but took one of the only six coveted spots for the Game of the Year award. However, this may not be enough to sway media outlets from choosing the game as its winner.
“Balatro” is a definite surprise because this genre is rarely represented in this category and because of this it is unlikely to win the entire category. In terms of critical reception, “Black Myth: Wukong” has the lowest ratings, which perhaps is an indicator of less likelihood to win.
The three top choices would likely be “Astro Bot,” “Final Fantasy VII,” or “Metaphor: ReFantazio,” although the first two are probably the strongest contenders. Tune in on Thursday, Dec. 12 to find out who takes the top prize.
