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2028 Presidential Election Betting

How to legally trade real money on the 2028 presidential election on prediction markets. Track current odds and market movement here.

by Chris Gerlacher

July 30, 2025

Trade on Prediction Markets » Election Betting in the U.S. » 2028 Presidential Election Betting

The 2028 presidential election will take place on Nov. 7, 2028. It’s not too early to begin wondering who each party will nominate to run for the presidency. There’s already speculation about who will follow in Trump’s footsteps and which wing of the Democratic Party will be ascendant after the midterms.

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi offer legal ways to bet and trade on the election. Here, we’ll cover the frontrunners’ odds and how to bet on the 2028 presidential election legally and safely.

2028 Presidential election betting odds (Frontrunners)

J.D. Vance presidential odds

Vice President J.D. Vance is the current frontrunner for the top of the Republican ticket in 2028. A former never-Trumper, Vance has embraced Trump and the MAGA movement to become one of its most effective champions.

Vance used to be known for his 2016 memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, which described his troubled childhood in Ohio and the struggles of his family in Kentucky. He became an interpreter of the working class who fueled Trump’s presidential victory that same year, initially calling Trump “cultural heroin” and comparing him to Hitler.

Near the end of Trump’s first term, Vance began to praise Trump’s hardline immigration policies and “family values” that he believes are key to revitalizing the American working class. Vance continued gravitating toward Trump’s policies until he could publicly say he was wrong about Trump.

As the heir-apparent to the MAGA movement, Vance is a polished, refined Trump that could shape a possible post-Trump Republican Party.

Democratic factions

Unlike the Republican Party, the Democratic Party has no current figurehead. The Democrats stand at a crossroads, waiting to see which faction will resonate with voters.

One path leads to influential candidates like Kamala Harris or Gavin Newsom. Harris’ 2024 loss poses hard questions about how Democrats can distance themselves from the social justice excesses of 2020 and how they can bounce back from revelations about the extent President Biden’s aides went to hide his deteriorating mental and physical health.

However, Harris still has until after the 2026 midterms to forge a second political life as Richard Nixon did in 1968 after he announced his leave of politics in 1960.

Newsom, California’s governor, is a charismatic figure who has had to take a back seat in previous presidential election cycles to support the frontrunner. He rallied behind Biden in 2020 during the emergency of COVID-19 and behind Biden and Harris in 2024. But without a clear Democratic leader, Newsom has room to chart his own path to the nomination.

His podcast is already using conservative influencers to reach their audiences directly to bypass the caricature painted of him in conservative media. Whether it’s effective remains to be seen.

Another early Democratic frontrunner is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. AOC is a self-described Democratic Socialist who believes in a more robust welfare state and government policy designed with the working class in mind rather than the wealthiest Americans.

She’s the heir to Bernie Sanders’ and Elizabeth Warren’s progressive movement that gained steam after the 2008 Financial Crisis. AOC shares the populist rage that powers the MAGA movement, so she is a potential key to Democrats winning back the working class and other disillusioned voters.

Finally, Democratic governors could offer new voices who capture national sentiment after the midterms. Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, and other governors of red or swing states have demonstrated an ability to appeal to at least some voters on both sides of the aisle. While they can’t reunite the country, these governors are well-positioned to meet whatever moment the waning days of Trump’s second term demands.

Where to bet on presidential election

The finance industry has brought legal presidential betting to the United States in the form of prediction markets. However, the prediction market industry spans finance, academia, and the Effective Altruism movement.

These are the top sites for election betting and trading. The best site for presidential election betting will depend on what kind of election trading you’re looking to do, and whether you want to speculate on real money or play money markets.

Kalshi

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated platform dedicated to prediction markets on diverse topics from the economy to the weather. The commercial platform allows customers to bet on the presidential race, both chambers of Congress, and individual state election outcomes. There are gubernatorial races, too. For traders who don’t want to put money on one candidate, Kalshi also offers markets on which party will win different races. Kalshi will be the best election betting option for most U.S. election bettors or traders.

PredictIt

PredictIt is an academic prediction market that exclusively offers political and election markets. It has a smaller selection and lower position limits, but it’s another CFTC-sanctioned election betting and trading platform available to U.S. customers.

Polymarket

Polymarket is a crypto prediction market that offers wagers to customers outside the United States. Deposits and withdrawals are exclusively in cryptocurrencies, so it’s not as easy to use for traders who aren’t used to the crypto environment.

Manifold

Manifold is a free-to-play sweepstakes prediction market. Traders can bet on the election with fictional currency and buy currency packs if they want more. Uniquely, Manifold customers can create their own markets, so the possibilities are endless for traders who can write air-tight settlement criteria.

ForecastEx

ForecastEx supplies Interactive Brokers’ prediction markets on economic, climate, and election outcomes. They’re geared toward high-dollar traders who want to make event contracts part of a portfolio instead of using them as one-off bets. Still, traders will find markets on the 2028 presidential election on this platform.

Metaculus

Metaculus is a free prediction market that weights its users’ forecasts based on past accuracy. Instead of buying and selling contracts, bettors use a slider to put a number on their predictions.

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How to bet on the presidential election

Betting on the 2028 presidential election is easy on commercial prediction markets. Kalshi users can open the site and select the side they’d like to take. All traders have to do is select whether they’d like to take a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ position in a market. Then, select the dollar amount traders want to spend or the number of contracts to purchase. Traders can submit their orders, and the orders will be added to their portfolios.

Kalshi also allows traders to place limit orders. Instead of instantly placing an order, a limit order only goes through if a contract reaches a certain price.

Traders can select the limit order option, where they choose whether to buy in dollars or contracts.
Then, select the limit price, the number of contracts, and the expiration criteria.

A “good ‘till cancelled” limit order will lie in wait to be filled until the trader cancels the order. An “immediate or cancel” limit order will be cancelled if it isn’t filled immediately. Traders can also select a midnight deadline or set another time or date that their limit order must be filled by before being cancelled.

Once the conditions are set, traders can submit their orders and see if they’re filled.

Who will be the Democratic nominee in 2028?

Gavin Newsom odds

While Newsom finally has a chance to step into a leadership role himself, he could face an uphill battle in the general election even if he proves popular in the primary. He is one of the early frontrunners based on the odds at prediction markets.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez odds

One of the country’s most prominent Progressives, AOC is closest to the working-class rage that led to their defection from the Democratic Party and embrace of Trump. She could be the Democratic presidential nominee if the Progressive wing of the party can shake off its baggage from the 2020 election cycle and Trump’s first term. Kalshi gives her an 11% chance of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee.

Pete Buttigieg odds

Buttigieg was the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, when he gained national recognition during Trump’s first term. His clarity of speech and willingness to publicly engage with ordinary Americans who disagreed with him helped make him a Democratic star. He even ran for president in 2020 and won early state primaries. He has an 8% chance of becoming the nominee.

Who will be the Republican nominee in 2028?

J.D. Vance odds

Vance is the far-and-away favorite to become the Republican nominee in 2028. His odds began near 50% but have fallen to the low 40s. The end of Trump’s reign could set off a wave of challenges for that seemingly safe position in the party.

Tulsi Gabbard odds

Gabbard is a former Democrat who aligned with Trump’s anti-establishment campaign. Some view her as a bridge between MAGA Republicans and disillusioned Democrats. Kalshi has her odds of reaching the top of the Republican ticket at 11%.

Donald Trump odds

Trump has a 9% chance of being his party’s nominee in 2028. Despite a third term’s unconstitutionality, Trump’s inaction on January 6 has shown that he is willing to ignore the Constitution’s provisions.

2028 Presidential race timeline and shifting odds

The early months of Trump’s presidency failed to produce a clear heir to the MAGA movement or Democratic politicians who could lead their troubled party. As of May 2025, it’s too early to say which issues will be central to the 2026 midterms, much less who the most obvious contenders for the presidency are.

May 22, 2025 – The House of Representatives passed the “big, beautiful bill”, which included tax cuts for the wealthy and reductions in social spending.
Jan. 20, 2025 – Trump is inaugurated for his second presidential term.
Nov. 5, 2024 – Trump wins re-election with all seven swing states.

How accurate are prediction markets at predicting election winners?

Prediction markets are good at aggregating publicly available information. However, on topics with little public information available, prediction market prices are unreliable.

For example, 2024 presidential election platforms, like Kalshi and Polymarket, showed a higher chance of Trump’s victory than traditional polls. There was an endless supply of punditry, polling data, and local perspectives that could be aggregated into a price.

In contrast, the market on who the next pope would be took prediction markets completely off guard. All the people with information relevant to predicting the next pope were locked in the conclave. Market prices aggregated speculation instead of useful data.

Prediction markets also performed better in national races than local ones. Rajiv Sethi found that FiveThirtyEight’s model outperformed Polymarket in House races, including those in Iowa, after the Selzer poll showed Harris ahead in that state.

How prediction markets beat the polls in 2024

The 2024 presidential election cycle was the third in a row that pollsters underestimated Trump’s support. Given the suspicion of the elite class that included pollsters, Americans were receptive to an alternative source of information.

Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket were more confident in Trump’s 2024 victory than polls, but commercial prediction markets only had one election to prove themselves superior to traditional polls. The 2026 midterms will be the next stress test for the explosive prediction market industry.

FAQs

Can you bet on the election?

Yes. Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC. Since they’re federally regulated, platforms like Kalshi, ForecastEx, and PredictIt offer legal election bets. As long as the CFTC continues to allow them, event contracts on elections could remain legal through the 2028 presidential election.

Are prediction markets better than polls at predicting who will win the election?

Prediction markets excel when all the relevant information for a forecast is available to their traders. Based on the 2024 presidential election, prediction markets are better at forecasting the national race than some local races with less liquidity and readily available information.

What kinds of polls are prediction markets better than?

Prediction markets improved over election polls, which tried to model the election results. They shouldn’t be confused with issue polls, which ask respondents who they voted for and why. These types of polls look backwards and are crucial for understanding how an election unfolded.

Where can I bet on the presidential election?

Regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, ForecastEx, and PredictIt are safe, legal election betting options for Americans. Manifold is a free-to-play prediction market where traders can buy currency packs if they run out.

What is the best site for election betting?

Kalshi is the best site for American election bettors. It has the largest selection of political markets, the highest limits, and has one of the most straightforward signup processes among the CFTC-regulated prediction market platforms.

How does Kalshi election betting work?

Kalshi customers register for their accounts. They must provide their personal information, including their Social Security Numbers. Once that’s complete, bettors and traders can make their first deposits, buy their desired contracts, and either sell them or hold them until the end.

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