The 2024 presidential election was a devastating loss for Democrats, but the 2026 midterms represent Democrats’ first chances to regain some semblance of power. With election betting now legal at prediction market platforms, you can put real money behind your predictions in Senate and House races.
Here’s everything prediction market traders need to know about betting on the 2026 midterms.
In 2024, Republicans won the presidency, House, and Senate, adding to their long-standing victory at the Supreme Court and many federal judiciary positions.
The Democrats only have to flip three House seats during the midterms to regain the majority. The Cook Political Report rates 10 Democratic districts and 8 Republican districts as toss-ups, giving Democrats a path back to power in the House.
Republicans seem positioned to hold onto the Senate, but enough can change in the months between late March and November 2026 to change the popularity of senators who support Trump and Elon Musk.
Democrats have a 75% chance of winning the House in the 2026 midterms, a common pattern in which the opposition party gains seats in the House as the winning party’s flaws become consequential.
The House of Representatives holds elections for all 435 members every two years. This election schedule allows the lower chamber of Congress to be more responsive to the immediate issues on Americans’ minds. That means a zeitgeist shift can hit the House of Representatives harder than the Senate.
In late March 2025, early reports suggested that Democrats would make the midterms a referendum on Trump, Musk, and DOGE. Indiscriminate government firings that impacted Trump supporters and left the Pentagon and Department of Homeland Security budgets untouched could hurt Republicans who won close races in 2024.
While some districts consistently vote for one party, some races have the potential to send someone from either party to Congress. These are the toss-up districts:
| Democratic District | Republican District |
|---|---|
| CA-13 - Gray | AZ-01 - Schweikert |
| CA-45 - Tran | AZ-06 - Ciscomani |
| ME-02 - Golden | CO-08 - Evans |
| NC-01 - Davis | IA-01 - Miller-Meeks |
| NM-02 - Vasquez | MI-07 - Barrett |
| NY-04 - Gillen | NE-02 - Bacon |
| OH-09 - Kaptur | PA-07 - Mackenzie |
| OH-13 - Sykes | PA-10 - Perry |
| TX-34 - Gonzalez | |
| WA-03 - Perez |
Republicans have an 83% chance of holding onto the Senate in November. Only one-third of the chamber is up for re-election every two years, so senators will be safe in 2026.
The Cook Political Report only categorized two Senate races as toss-ups in 2026. Both are Democratic seats: Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Michigan’s open Senate seat. Ossoff won his Senate seat in 2020 by about 1.2%. It was a close race influenced by Trump’s policy failures during the pandemic. Like Georgia’s electoral college votes, Georgia’s Senate seat could return to the Republicans in the next election cycle.
Senator Gary Peters announced his retirement in January 2025, so Republicans and Democrats are vying for the new Senate seat. Trump only won Michigan by 1.4% in 2024. The Senate race could be decided largely by candidate quality, and give either party a reasonable chance at securing the Senate seat. Republican chances at gaining another Senate seat will depend on how popular Trump and Musk remain leading up to the midterms–and whether Democrats can mount a popular campaign.
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Read moreSenators run for re-election in classes. Class II is up for re-election in 2026 and contains these senators:
| Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|
| Cory Booker - New Jersey | Shelley Capito - West Virginia |
| Christopher Coons - Delaware | Bill Cassidy - Louisiana |
| Richard Durbin - Illinois | Susan Collins - Maine |
| John Hickenlooper - Colorado | John Cornyn - Texas |
| Ben Lujan - New Mexico | Tom Cotton - Arkansas |
| Edward Markey - Massachusetts | Steve Daines - Montana |
| Jeff Merkley - Oregon | Joni Ernst - Iowa |
| Jon Ossoff - Georgia | Lindsey Graham - South Carolina |
| Gary Peters - Michigan (Open) | Bill Hagerty - Tennessee |
| Jack Reed - Rhode Island | Cynthia Lummis - Wyoming |
| Jeanne Shaheen - New Hampshire | Roger Marshall - Kansas |
| Tina Smith - Minnesota | Mitch McConnell - Kentucky (Open) |
| Mark Warner - Virginia | Markwayne Mullin - Oklahoma |
| Pete Ricketts - Nebraska | |
| James Risch - Idaho | |
| Mike Rounds - South Dakota | |
| Dan Sullivan - Arkansas | |
| Thom Tillis - North Carolina | |
| Tommy Tuberville - Alabama |
The midterms are still far away, but there are a few sites and accounts to follow for up-to-date midterm information. News sites like Politico will have early information about the midterms, from competitive races to candidates who will shape the races in their early days. As the midterms approach, we’ll include influencers and forecasters who are beginning to produce midterms content in bulk.
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