Economy and Business Prediction Markets

Find out how to start trading on economic and business-related prediction markets from the fed rate to company earnings calls.

Economy Business Prediction Markets Intro

There may be no better, more pivotal use of prediction markets than economic forecasts. After all, if we had a better idea of what was likely to happen tomorrow, we could make better decisions today.

Obviously prediction markets have been successful elsewhere—predicting elections and other political events, sporting events, and pop culture moments—but arguably the most beneficial use-cases is to test and improve the accuracy of existing economic models for major macro indicators such as unemployment, interest rates, and gas prices, just to name a few.

Economic and business prediction markets offer market-driven forecasts that can turn uncertainty into actionable insights for investors, economists, policymakers, and average Joes looking to hedge against economic or business volatility.

What are economic and business prediction markets?

Prediction markets are exchange-based platforms, functioning like stock markets, but where users trade event contracts based on the outcomes of future events. Economic and business prediction markets specifically focus on variables tied to financial indicators, economic policy outcomes, commodity prices, and business-related metrics.

Participants buy and sell shares of event contracts, with prices fluctuating based on the collective belief of traders. When the outcome is determined, contracts are settled accordingly. Prices in these markets are typically 1-99¢ and effectively serve as forecasts, conveniently converting to implied probabilities. For example, a 35¢ contract converts to a 35% forecast.

In the correct environment where there’s sufficient liquidity and trading activity, prediction markets aggregate diverse information from a wide participant base, improving traditional forecasting mechanisms.

Economic prediction market example

Consider a prediction market for the U.S. unemployment rate. Traders might purchase shares in contracts like “Will the U.S. unemployment rate exceed 5% in Q4 2025?” 

If the unemployment rate reaches 5.2%
YES: Contracts settle at $1/share
Bought at 40¢ → 150% profit
NO: Contracts expire worthless

There’s also the optionality of selling your position before the outcome is determined. So say that same 40¢ share surges to 80¢ before the unemployment rate is actually determined. You can sell your shares for a 100% return rather than waiting for the full duration of the event to play out.

This real-time pricing provides valuable insights into economic sentiment and expected market conditions.

Business prediction market example

Now consider a market question related to Tesla’s quarterly deliveries. Traders might buy contracts predicting whether Tesla will exceed a specific number of vehicle deliveries, such as “Will Tesla deliver more than 500,000 vehicles this quarter?” If Tesla announces 520,000 deliveries, ‘Yes’ contracts would settle at full value ($1 per share), rewarding traders who predicted correctly.

This type of market provides investors and analysts with early signals regarding company performance and consumer demand.

There is a wide range of business-related prediction market questions. Other examples include:

  • The status of CEOs
  • Product launches
  • Subscriber numbers
  • Mentions of markets for a firm’s quarterly earnings call

Latest Economic Prediction News

Prediction market trading vs. traditional trading

While traditional financial markets allow you to invest directly in assets such as stocks, bonds, or commodities, economic prediction markets offer a fundamentally different approach that focuses on outcomes of economic-related questions. Prediction markets are tailored to a specific question that will end up happening or not (‘Yes’ or ‘No’). The outcomes are measurable and clear, typically with short-to-medium-term time horizons.

For novice traders, prediction markets are less daunting to trade than traditional markets.

Best Economic and Business Prediction Market Sites

If you are looking to dive into economic and business prediction markets and begin trading predictions yourself, there are a few sites to choose from. What’s the best prediction market site? The answer depends on the user. In any case, here are our favorites and who they are most suited for.

Economic and business markets on Kalshi

Kalshi is best for U.S.-based users who are looking to risk real money on economic-related questions.

Kalshi has the most diverse range of economic prediction markets, ranging from common economic questions related to measurables for inflation, growth, and employment but also specialize in more niche mention markets, allowing traders to predict, for example, what words the Fed Chairman will say in a speech or what a CEO may say during an earnings call.

Additionally, Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), ensuring federal oversight of the exchange and its practices.

Economic and business markets on Polymarket

Polymarket is best for international users or anyone looking for market-generated forecasts.

Polymarket has a lot of the same markets that Kalshi does, but also ventures into important economic questions for other countries. Polymarket runs on blockchain technology, making it mostly legit and safe, even if it’s not regulated by the government. The downside of its lack of oversight is that there are more resolution disputes that come from badly curated market rules and ambiguous questions

Economic and business markets on Manifold

With its play-money called “Mana,” Manifold is perfect for more casual or novice traders who are interested in prediction markets and want to test their economic and business predictions without putting real money at stake..

Manifold users can create their own questions, so it’s no surprise there are a ton of markets to choose from. Manifold is an intuitive platform, but unfortunately, with a lot less activity than you’ll find on other platforms, which may hinder the platform’s forecast accuracy.

Economic and business markets on ForecastEx

ForecastEX is best for institutional traders, with deep pockets and experience trading. Like Kalshi, it is a federally regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), but it takes a steep deposit to launch an account. Since it’s not geared for recreational traders, there are far fewer markets available to trade on.

Economic and business markets on Robinhood

Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to launch prediction markets on its popular finance app. The idea is that having Kalshi’s prediction markets available on Robinhood will boost liquidity and trading activity. However, not all of Kalshi’s markets can be found on Robinhood.

Robinhood has discretion of what markets are shown to its users. So far, Robinhood has opted for more traditional economic markets and sports markets.

In any case, we can’t recommend trading on Robinhood over Kalshi to anyone. If you want to trade, you’ll get the best bang for your buck trading on Kalshi, which not only has more options but also charges much smaller trading fees.

Economic trading strategies

Successfully trading on economic and business prediction markets isn’t easy but is doable with the right approaches.

  • Hedging Economic Risk: Utilize prediction markets to mitigate real-world financial exposure. For example, if rising gas prices negatively affect your business, buying contracts that pay out when gas prices rise provides financial protection.
  • Contrarian Trading: Spot market inefficiencies by identifying overly optimistic or pessimistic predictions and trading against the prevailing sentiment.
  • Data-Driven Decisions: Combine real-time market pricing with traditional economic indicators and historical data for more informed trading decisions.
  • Diversification: Spread risk by participating in multiple economic markets, reducing the overall impact of one adverse event.
  • Listen to the News: The Fed often signals its upcoming decision in advance. Stay on top of the news and move quickly when you can.

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