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How to Trade on Spotify Music Markets

Everything you need to know to start trading real money on Spotify trends and chart predictions.

  • Updated on:
Spotify prediction markets
Got music knowledge? Now, you can actually make money from it through prediction markets. These Spotify prediction markets let you bet on your favorite music artists and Spotify trends. Whether you’re guessing which songs will top the charts or which artists will blow up next, there are more ways than ever to put your music hunches to work.

In this guide, we’ll walk you through everything you need to know before jumping into Spotify prediction markets – no music industry degree required.

What are Spotify prediction markets?

Spotify is the largest music streaming service. It holds about 30% of the market with over 600 million monthly active users.

Spotify was founded in 2006 in Stockholm, Sweden, before becoming the giant that it is today. It uses a freemium model, where free users have limited control and ads, while paid users have an ads-free experience in addition to other perks.

The platform’s library includes over 100 million songs and 6.5 million podcasts. About 100,000 songs are added to music platforms every day.

With so much content being added daily and the company being such a titan in its industry, prediction market platforms have created countless markets about Spotify.

  • Top artists
  • Top podcasts
  • Subscriber growth

These prediction market platforms allow traders to predict how likely an event is to happen.

For example, what will be the No. 1 song today? The markets might think that Espresso by Sabrina Carpenter will be at the top at 35%. If you think the chances are higher, you can buy a share at 35 cents. The more shares you buy, the likelier you think this outcome will be, and the higher the forecasted percentage will be.

The opposite is true as well. If you disagree, you can pay 65 cents to say no and lower the predicted percentage and the cost of the yes option. Essentially, if you feel well-informed about these topics, you can win based on your music knowledge.

Where to trade Spotify prediction markets

Spotify prediction markets exist on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Platform US Accessibility Spotify Market Availability Regulation
Kalshi Legal for US users Many Spotify-related markets CFTC-regulated
Polymarket Not legal for US users (VPN needed) Only one Spotify market in 2024; none in 2025 so far Less regulated (blockchain/crypto-based)

Types of Spotify prediction markets

Kalshi offers a range of options, from daily to weekly markets tracking top songs. If you follow subscriber trends, their growth markets are perfect for you.

Are you more into music charts? Jump into their song prediction markets instead. Pick the lane that matches your expertise, or do them all — it’s your choice.

These are the kinds of Spotify prediction markets:

  • Top Global & USA Song on Spotify (& Runner-Up)
  • Top Album
  • Top Artist
  • Who will release a new song/album this year?
  • Top podcast on Spotify this year?
  • Spotify subscribers

Let’s take a closer look at each of these.

Top Global & USA Song on Spotify (& Runner-Up)

On Kalshi, there are four different Spotify markets for songs:

  • Top USA Song on Spotify (daily)
  • Runner-up USA Song on Spotify (daily)
  • Top Global Song on Spotify (daily)
  • Top Song on Weekly Top Songs USA (Thursdays)

Some markets, like Top Song on the weekly chart, only started at the end of January of this year, but markets like the daily Top USA Song have been running since October of last year and are very popular. The latter market has over $16 million cumulatively traded since then.

The daily Top Global Song has had an impressive cumulative trading volume of over $1 million since the beginning of January. This shows that many have already seized the opportunity to trade on these Spotify prediction markets.

There are a variety of factors you want to focus on to improve your chances of correctly predicting these songs. It’s important to know when these charts are updated.

The Spotify charts tend to be updated before 6 pm ET the day after the chart period ends. For the weekly charts, the period lasts from Friday to the following Thursday.

This is why the release date is also important. Most songs are released on Fridays for this exact reason, but if a song is released on another day of the week, it would affect its chances of ranking higher or lower on the chart. You can find the official charts on the official Spotify charts site.

Another metric to track is the song’s virality on social media. Platforms like Instagram and TikTok share the number of times a song is used for videos and whether a sound is trending. If a song is trending on social media, it is more likely to perform better on Spotify as well.

Other chart performances are good indicators. If you are trading on the weekly chart, keep a close eye on the daily chart and streaming numbers to determine trends.

Is the song consistently at the top, or has it been going down throughout the week? Moreover, think about larger trends. What songs have recently been No. 1 on the chart? A ballad is much less likely to be at the top (unless it’s an Adele song) versus an upbeat pop song.

And lastly, are there multiple artists featured on the song? If yes, the multiple fan bases could propel the song to higher limits. You can look at Luther by SZA and Kendrick Lamar or Die With a Smile by Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga as proof of that.

Top Album markets

For many of these music-focused Spotify markets, the signs you want to watch out for are similar. For instance, timing is important, not only in terms of the day of the week but also in terms of competition.

If Selena Gomez and a smaller artist released an album on the same day, the smaller artist’s chances of going number one are significantly lowered. Knowing the album’s competition can change the project’s trajectory.

It’s also important to see how the singles that have been released leading up to the album performed. Did they do well, unequally, poorly, and so on? If there’s a lead single that is being streamed exceptionally well, it can pull up the ranking for the entire album.

You can also check if a song from the album is featured in the Top Spotify playlists. For example, is the song featured on Spotify’s New Music Friday playlist? If yes, how well is that song performing in terms of streams?

Keeping an eye on the daily streams can keep you in the know about how well the album and its songs are performing. You can also use sites like Kworb to track the album’s listens. Because Spotify doesn’t show total listens, you would have to add the streams from each song manually.

Lastly, similar to the Top Song, are there collaborations on the album? If Taylor Swift is featured on an album, it can really help improve the album’s performance.

Top Artist markets

Kalshi has four different markets for the Top Artist:

  • Will Bruno Mars be overtaken as the most-streamed monthly artist?
  • Who is the Top Artist on Spotify this year?
  • Who is the Top USA Artist today?
  • Who will top the Weekly Top Artists USA chart on Thursday?

The markets have a cumulative trading volume of over $30,000 to over $150,000. These artists are the most streamed, and their overall streams determine their rank.

Some artists consistently stay on the charts despite not releasing music often. For example, Rihanna is on the chart but hasn’t released a full-length album since 2016.

These are a category of artists who are loved and maintain a high position regardless of new releases. Taylor Swift releases a lot of music but also continues to stay high on the charts.

The next thing to look for is if they have released a new song. A newly released song increases the streams for that song and all their other most popular songs. As of Apr. 14, 2025, Drake is number 1 on the chart.

This is because he just released his song Nokia. This is expected, but how?

Nokia has also been the No. 1 weekly song and the No.1 daily song since Apr. 4, 2025. The other charts can provide information about one another, making it simpler to understand which artist will likely reach the top spot.

Next, you can check if they have more albums or songs coming out. This can provide more momentum. If not, is the momentum dying down? Use daily streams and social media trending sounds to see if the song is losing interest.

Most importantly, are there multiple songs that are viral or performing well? For example, Bruno Mars currently has the most monthly listeners. This is likely thanks to a large repertoire of old popular songs in addition to two new hits — Die With A Smile with Lady Gaga and APT. with Rosie.

In terms of the top artist of the year, it’s important to see:

  • Who was at the top from month to month?
  • Who was at the top in previous years?
  • Is there a pattern or a trend we can determine?
  • Did they have any big hits?
  • Did they release an album?
  • Are they on tour promoting an album?

All these factors can affect an artist’s ranking.

Latest Music Markets News

View All Pop Culture Markets News

Top podcast on Spotify this year

The top podcast of 2025 is an interesting category because the same podcasts have been at the top of the charts for several years. Since 2020, The Joe Rogan Experience has been the No. 1 podcast on Spotify.

However, it’s not clear as day that he will continue to be at the top. Alexandra Cooper’s Call Her Daddy continues to grow in popularity and hosts popular celebrities that attract large audiences.

Call Her Daddy has also been at the No. 2 spot since 2021 and seems to be growing in popularity. Cooper’s production studio continues to create new content, which only increases the brand awareness of the original podcast.

The Joe Rogan Experience continues to maintain an extremely passionate fan base that is only likely to grow with the divisive political landscape in the United States.

However, this is difficult to track because Spotify doesn’t release podcast stream numbers. It’s more of a guessing game. You would have to track how the podcasts perform on social media and YouTube to see if the momentum is still there.

Who will release a new song/album this year?

These markets are largely speculative and can be difficult to predict. For example, Will the “North West album drop on Spotify this year?” This kind of market is purely based on gossip.

They know that Kanye West is her father and think it makes sense for her to release an album. In the last couple of years, she has performed at the Hollywood Bowl and been featured on songs with her father. This market is likely what people believe would be the next step for her.

The only way to learn anything about this is to keep up with the latest news and trends. Follow the artist’s social media, see if she is featured on any other music, and so on.

Spotify Subscribers in Q1 2025

You can trade not only on Spotify’s content but also on its business metrics. There are markets on Spotify’s subscriber growth in each quarter.

While Spotify only releases numbers quarterly, a couple of things could help inform a prediction. For example, if Spotify announced a huge exclusive contract with a popular podcast like Call Her Daddy, this would have encouraged more signups.

Outside of public deals, you can watch more economic trends. Consider measures for economic anxiety, buyer confidence, inflation, tariffs, and how all of these things can affect a consumer’s ability and willingness to purchase a new subscription.

Of course, taking a look at growth in recent quarters can be useful as well.

Top tips for trading Spotify prediction markets​

Be in tune with pop culture. You can’t just look at your own Spotify algorithm and define a song, album, or artist’s success by only that. Consume pop culture – articles, social media, trending sounds, topics being discussed – and these things can help you better understand which of these things are gaining traction and which are just blips.

When is important, but so is the why. If your favorite artist released an album last Friday, take a look at who their competitors are. Did another big artist release an album the previous week? Is a different one releasing an album next week? Knowing that they are bookended by big releases on both sides would encourage the artist and their record label to push the music this week before a bigger shark comes next week.

Streaming is more than just a trending sound. Yes, absolutely pay attention to what’s trending on TikTok, but don’t only look at that. A trending song on Monday does not mean it’s getting streamed on Spotify. It’s important to take a comprehensive approach to these markets.

Spotify’s top editorial choices can sway streams. If Spotify’s editorial team put Taylor Swift’s new song first on the New Music Friday playlist, it would be significantly more likely to perform better in terms of streams. Look at what songs are on top of the playlists to get a better grasp of each song’s chances.

Success in these Spotify markets requires more than casual music listening — it requires an approach combining social media monitoring, chart analysis, release timing awareness, and an understanding of broader cultural movements. Staying informed can give you the edge.

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Dennis Aronov

Dennis Aronov

Dennis Aronov is the Pop Culture and Entertainment writer for PredictionNews, where he covers the latest in television, movies, music, video games, and celebrity news through the lens of prediction markets. His work has appeared in major publications like USA Today and FanBolt. A graduate of New York University, Dennis brings his expertise and passion for entertainment to his reporting, all from his home base in New York City.

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