How to Trade on Billboard Music Charts

Everything you need to know about betting on Billboard music charts, including key factors that influence a song's success.

Trading Billboard Music Charts Markets

Billboard is a music and entertainment website, and it is arguably the most famous publisher of music charts in the United States. The website publishes weekly charts for the most popular songs and albums. When a singer proclaims they have No. 1 hits, they typically are referring to Billboard specifically. Every week, music listeners around the world listen to their favorite music and wait to see which artist is at the top of that week’s charts.

The unpredictability of it has contributed to the growing popularity of legally trading on these Billboard markets via the top U.S. prediction market platform, Kalshi.

How to get started with Billboard prediction markets

With the help of the top prediction market platform, Kalshi, music lovers can bet on their favorite music artists. U.S. traders are permitted to use Kalshi because it is a CFTC-regulated exchange, making it legal for U.S. users.

On Kalshi, there are prediction markets where you can trade on how likely an event will happen. There are markets in many industries, from entertainment to politics to the economy.

For music lovers, you can bet on Spotify, Billboard, and other music-related markets. For Billboard specifically, there are many surrounding the Billboard Hot 100 and Billboard 200 charts.

For example, as of Billboard’s Hot 100 chart dated June 21, 2025, Sabrina Carpenter’s “Manchild” currently holds a position of 58%.

If you believe her chances of being at the top are:
Higher?
Buy “YES” share for 65¢
Lower?
Buy “NO” share for 51¢
✅ If correct with 100 YES shares:
Receive $100 payout
Profit = $26.97
❌ If wrong:
Shares expire worthless

Latest Music Prediction News

How do the Billboard charts work?

As mentioned previously, Billboard publishes a collection of charts every week. The most famous one is their album chart, called the Billboard 200, and their songs chart, called the Hot 100.

Their Hot 100 can have a different No. 1 every week, but more often than not, the chart features songs that are at the top position for multiple weeks. Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road” and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” hold the record for 19 weeks.

As a result, there are not 52 different songs at the top of the Hot 100 every year. The same can be said about the Billboard 200 chart, where Michael Jackson’s Thriller album was at No. 1 for a record 37 weeks.

Chart Ranking Factors
Billboard Hot 100
  • Sales
  • Radio Airplay
  • Streams
Billboard 200
  • Album Sales
  • Track Equivalent Albums (number of single tracks sold)
  • Streaming Equivalent Albums

How does Billboard trading work on Kalshi?

On Kalshi, there are many different Billboard chart-related markets. There are markets in which two songs will be in the No. 1 and No. 2 positions — the same for the Billboard 200 chart.

There are markets on:

  • How many weeks a singer’s song will be at the peak position?
  • Whether specific artists will receive a No. 1 song or album this year?
  • Whether certain artists will have any song reach the top 20 on the Hot 100 chart?

The artist also comes from a wide range of genres, including country, pop, R&B, and hip-hop. If you are only familiar with one genre, you can trade and predict the artists in this genre. You can work to your strengths.

Tips for trading Billboard markets

Whether you’re new or experienced in trading on music markets, here are some tips every trader should be aware of before diving in with real money. 

  1. Don’t rely on just one source of information. This creates an echo chamber, which is the opposite of what you want when making predictions. You can read articles, listen to podcasts, check social media, and so on to gauge how a song is performing.
  2. Look at a song’s streams, you can see if it’s gaining or losing steam. Taking a look at Spotify charts, iTunes charts, YouTube Music, and other platforms can help determine this.
  3. Use TikTok and Instagram to see if the song is a trending sound on the platform. If it’s being used on socials, it may also boost its ranking on the Billboard charts.
  4. Examine an artist’s Billboard chart history. Have they had previous No. 1s? What’s their highest charting song or album? This can illustrate their chances of getting a number-one song or album.
  5. Look at social media accounts that publish their own predictions for the charts. For example, @talkofthecharts publishes their predictions, which can be helpful in informing your predictions. But don’t blindly follow them. Always do your own research before trading.

Billboard prediction markets on Kalshi offer music fans a way to put their knowledge to work while following their favorite artists and charts.

By staying informed about streaming trends and chart history, traders can make more educated predictions about which songs and albums will reach the top positions each week.

Join the

Prediction News Community

Featuring prediction market
analysis, data insights
plus
comprehensive industry reporting

News Categories

Must Read

Netflix prediction markets - An introduction

How to Bet on Netflix Shows and Movie Markets

Musk-Trump Trading Markets Reflect Power and Popularity Dynamics

Netflix prediction markets - An introduction

Netflix Top 10: Can ‘Fubar’ or New Documentaries Challenge ‘Ginny & Georgia’?

Netflix Top 10 Predictions: Can ‘Ginny & Georgia’ Dethrone ‘Sirens’?

Latest Episode

Prediction Platforms