On Tuesday, Sept. 10, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will face off in their first debate. It’s expected to be quite different from the first debate. Joe Biden had trouble speaking and finishing his thoughts, but Harris’ prosecutorial experience could make Trump look like he has an age problem.
If you think you can foresee how this debate will unfold, prediction markets offer markets for the finest details of each candidate’s debate performance.
Trump/Harris Debate Prop Bets and Markets
Prediction market platforms have created many markets for betting on debate props. Everything from how many debates there will be this year to whether the candidates will shake hands is available. Here are the main prediction markets for the U.S. presidential debate props.
How Many Presidential Debates Will There Be This Year?
Usually, there are three presidential debates in a presidential campaign season. The shakeup in this year’s presidential race has raised the question of whether there still will be.
After Sep. 10, there will have been two debates. The third will depend on whether Trump and Harris can agree on a venue. Trump has proposed Fox News to host the third presidential debate. When Biden took office, Fox News pledged to be an opposition source, foregoing accurate reporting for the sake of partisanship.
Whether Harris’ campaign sees enough value in debating in hostile territory could determine whether a third debate occurs this election season.
What Will Harris Say at the Debate?
Each candidate has words and phrases that come up in many of their speeches. Those repetitions come from making the same stump speeches for months at a time.
Some of the most likely words for Harris include “abortion,” “inflation,” and “Project 2025.” Democrats have campaigned on safeguarding abortion rights while criticizing the conservative policies outlined in Project 2025.
Inflation is a complicated issue for the Democrats. The inflation rate increased under Biden. The final stimulus check had inflationary pressure, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted natural gas supply lines, increasing fuel, transportation, and grocery costs. Harris will have to defend the Biden administration’s economic policy on Tuesday, so inflation will come up.
What Will Trump Say at the Debate?
Trump has talking points he hits in each speech like any other candidate. They include the conservative attack line that wholly blames Biden for the increased inflation rate. China also features prominently in Trump’s foreign policy mentions.
However, Trump’s tendency to ramble and go off on tangents has impacted these markets. Some of his props are on whether he says key words a certain number of times. Polymarket offers markets on whether he’ll say “China” at least three times or “border” at least 15 times. These are good markets if you know Trump’s cadence well.
Who Will Speak More at the Debate?
Even though both candidates have set amounts of time to speak, the moderator can ask follow-up questions. The follow-ups give one candidate a little more time to speak than the other.
Trump is the favorite for more speaking time. He’s famously talkative. Speaking over moderators and debate opponents defined his strategy in the 2016 and part of the 2020 debates. However, Harris can’t be counted out. She may find a way to attack Trump’s positions that adds to her speaking time.
Who is Asked the First Question?
The first question is decided by a coin toss. Harris is a favorite to receive the first question. Trump’s positions are more well-defined than hers. He has a record as president and is on his third campaign. Harris only entered the race in the summer. She was Vice President, but that’s not a powerful position for policymakers.
The moderator will likely focus on drawing policy details out of Harris and challenging Trump’s record and positions. The focus on getting details from Harris could give both candidates incentives to put Harris on the spot and make her articulate detailed policy positions.
Will Trump and Harris Shake Hands at Debate?
Trump hasn’t shaken hands with a debate opponent since 2016. He didn’t shake hands with Biden before or after their 2020 debates or their 2024 debate. It’s a gesture of civility that has fallen out of favor since Trump took over the Republican Party. Harris could attempt to bring it back, but it’s unclear how Trump would handle it.
Will Trump and Harris Agree to a Fox News Debate?
Fox News is a conservative media giant that pledged to be a loyal opposition to President Biden. Fox News’ programming has skewed facts in the past to support conservative candidates. That makes a debate hosted by Fox News friendly territory for Trump. Harris would be at a disadvantage from the moderator.
But Harris could turn the hostility from the network into a strength. Pete Buttigieg has made successful appearances on Fox News to connect with its viewers. Harris could adopt a similar strategy and show that she can hold her own against a media company that doesn’t support her.
Whether she’ll decide to do so will be informed by how well she does at Tuesday’s debate. If she’s leading in the polls post-debate, she may have little incentive to risk her lead with a Fox News debate. She could be more likely to agree to a third debate if she still has ground to make up.
