Money never sleeps—and starting this week, neither does Kalshi.
On Monday, the CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange announced in its Discord that it is scrapping its daily downtime and will open the orderbook 24/7 for traders, as it did during the week of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Kalshi previously closed shop every morning from 3-8 a.m. Eastern time. Now, scheduled pauses will take place from 3-5 a.m. each Thursday for maintenance.
What does nonstop trading mean for users?
More opportunity, but far less sleep.
‘Sleep is the enemy.’ Prediction market traders weigh in
Top prediction market trader Domer says “sleep is the enemy,” a sentiment he echoed during a recent podcast interview with Jordan Schneider of ChinaTalk.
“The other thing about prediction markets that doesn’t get much focus compared to financial markets is that prediction markets are 24/7,” Domer told Schneider.
“The news doesn’t sleep. If you’re trading financial markets, you can safely get your eight hours of sleep. You could theoretically do that and not miss any news whatsoever, but in prediction markets, sleep is the enemy. It’s very dangerous to sleep. If you’re building a team, you would probably want redundancies and widespread expertise in many different areas.”
Domer is one of the top earners on Polymarket, amassing a whopping $2 million in net profit on the 24/7 crypto-native exchange that is currently available worldwide but out of reach for U.S. traders (for now) without using a VPN.
Sleep, or lack thereof, has been less of an issue for Kalshi users who, until now, were not giving up edges by sleeping through overnight economic releases or overseas election news.
That all changes on Thursday. An around-the-clock exchange means prices will move while you sleep, so traders will need new processes to exploit informational edges and protect open positions.
With upside comes risk
Trader Gaeten Dugas, who has profited nearly $400,000 on Kalshi, believes the new hours are all upside.
“People worry about having to monitor positions 24/7, but that’s already the reality: you’re just powerless during off-hours.” Dugas told PredictionNews. “With 24/7 trading, you don’t have to act at 2 am, but now you can if breaking news hits. That flexibility can mean the difference between eating a loss and staying ahead of the curve.”
Still, he offers a cautionary note:
“When I dabbled in PredictIt tweet markets, the 24/7 action wrecked my sleep schedule.” Dugas said. “Kalshi’s new hours could have the same effect, so it’s worth factoring that in before taking a position that could be volatile around the clock.”
So what’s a trader who values shut-eye to do?
Some traders may collaborate, taking shifts to ensure their positions aren’t blindsided by news and that they never miss an opportunity to pick off resting orders.
Others will deploy alerts and automated strategies to mitigate their risk through the night.
More casual traders should attach expirations to their limit orders, as they will no longer be able to wake up before 8 a.m. to cancel stale quotes.
Competition heats up in U.S. prediction markets
Kalshi’s move comes as the regulated prediction market landscape in the U.S. is set to become more crowded:
- Polymarket recently acquired QCEX, a federally regulated exchange, as it eyes a legal return to the U.S.
- Railbird just secured a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
- DraftKings and FanDuel are reportedly scouting entry into the prediction market space, which would allow the sports betting behemoths to offer sports event contracts to users in states that still ban sports betting—most notably California and Texas.
By eliminating its overnight downtime, Kalshi removes a functional disadvantage against rivals that allow or will allow trading around the clock.
For traders, the message is clear: sleep at your own risk.
