Hours after securing a legal win in a Sept. 12 hearing, Kalshi opened its Senate Control Market at 12:15 p.m. Kalshi Co-founder Tarek Mansour announced the news via a pinned tweet.
The first election market is live on @Kalshi.
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) September 12, 2024
Today marks the first trade on regulated election markets in nearly a century.
This one is for you, the prediction markets community. pic.twitter.com/USzzVMffQn
The Senate Control market lets customers bet on which party will control the Senate after the 2024 election. Republicans are favored 75 to 25 to win the upper chamber.
Kalshi also launched its House Control market on which party will control the House of Representatives. Democrats are favored 63 to 38 to win the lower chamber.
Kalshi’s settlement date for both its House and Senate markets is Feb. 1, leaving nearly a month between the swearing-in of new members of Congress and the market’s settlement date. The platform will use the Library of Congress as the official source for verifying the outcome, with payouts expected by the morning of Feb. 1.
Kalshi’s Legal Path to Election Markets
Even though a D.C. District judge ruled to allow Kalshi to offer markets on election outcomes, the CFTC filed a motion for a stay. The stay would have prevented Kalshi from launching election markets despite their previous legal approval. The Sept. 12 hearing addressed the stay and ultimately lifted it.
In her Sept. 12 opinion, District Court Judge Jia Cobb wrote:
“This case is not about whether the Court likes Kalshi’s product or thinks trading it is a good idea. The Court’s only task is to determine what Congress did, not what it could do or should do. And Congress did not authorize the CFTC to conduct the public interest review it conducted here.”
The CFTC is expected to appeal to the D.C. Circuit Court. In the meantime, bettors and traders are free to begin trading on Kalshi’s congressional control markets.
