“Grand Theft Auto VI” (also known as “GTA VI”) is coming to fans in Fall 2025. Or at least that’s estimated launch for now?
Rockstar Games, the developer-publisher behind the game, has a long history of delaying its games. It happens so frequently that some fans are betting on the game’s delay.
On Polymarket and Kalshi, platforms where users can bet on the chances of a certain event occurring, markets have popped up on “GTA 6” – will the game be delayed before November, will there be a new trailer released before Oct. 4, and when will it actually be released?
Prediction News Pro Tip: When a market appears on multiple platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, monitor both closely—they can help inform your predictions or you can possibly find arbitrage opportunities.
With so many markets surrounding “GTA 6,” it’s important to understand the franchise and its developer’s history.
‘GTA 6’ & Rockstar’s delay history
Rockstar is infamous for delaying its games and “GTA 6“ isn’t the first in the franchise to be (potentially) delayed. They delayed “GTA IV“ from Oct. 2007 to Apr. 2008. This delay had significant ramifications for Rockstar’s parent company Take-Two Interactive. The announcement sent the company’s shares down 12.5%, not to mention the bad PR for the company.
“GTA V” was also delayed by Rockstar for four months in 2017 saying:
We know this is about four months later than originally planned and we know that this short delay will come as a disappointment to many of you, but, trust us, it will be worth the extra time. “GTA V“ is a massively ambitious and complex game and it simply needs a little more polish to be of the standard we and, more importantly, you require.
To be fair, the extra time may have been a smart move because it went on to become the third best-selling video game of all time with 200+ million units sold. And the massive success of this game is another reason why its follow-up is now so highly anticipated.
And the delays aren’t only exclusive to the “Grand Theft Auto” franchise. Their other wildly popular franchise “Red Dead Redemption” was also delayed. The first game was pushed back a month and the second game was delayed twice.
Prediction News Pro Tip: A company’s track record can provide useful information for future events. Take-Two Interactive has delayed its last two “Grand Theft Auto” titles—potentially signaling a higher likelihood for upcoming GTA 6 delays.
Rumors about GTA 6 being delayed
Despite the history of Rockstar delaying games in the past, there were no markets specifically about delays on Polymarket until the morning of Sept. 21. But did something trigger this new market? Yes.
Delay rumors have been circulating for the previous couple of weeks. Rumors are a powerful thing when it comes to prediction markets. They can create and destroy markets. In this case, a series of rumors created a Polymarket market about whether there would be a delay announced before November.
A rumor created by X/Twitter user @billsyliamgta created a frenzy. This user claimed that multiple Rockstar Games sources told them that the game was being delayed until 2026. The tweet gained momentum and eventually, the user posted that Bloomberg journalist Jason Schreier would corroborate. But Schreier denied these claims in his own X/Twitter post after speaking with six Rockstar employees.
The internet (and my DMs) blew up this weekend over a rumor that GTA VI is delayed. Good news is that six Rockstar employees all told me they have not heard of any delay. Bad news: it's a big, ambitious game and could very well slip! Too much time left to say anything definitive
— Jason Schreier (@jasonschreier) September 9, 2024
Despite all of this only being rumors, the real impact is tangible. On the morning of Sept. 9, Take-Two Interactive’s stock dropped $5 to the day’s low. However, perhaps thanks to Schreier’s tweet that same morning, the stock regained those $5.
And although Schreier had just confirmed that there were no delays, new rumors continued to appear. However, on Sept. 18, gaming reporter gaming reporter @Mr_Rebs_ posted a tweet from Take-Two Interactive’s 2024 annual report confirming that the company still plans to release the game in the Fall of 2025.
Take-Two Interactive just released their 2024 annual report which states “Rockstar Games plans to release Grand Theft Auto VI in the Fall of calendar 2025…and will share more details over time.” This proves the delay rumor was false. Source: https://t.co/S1hl2pl5GC #GTAVI pic.twitter.com/7X2zWcejuA
— Rebs Gaming (@Mr_Rebs_) September 18, 2024
'GTA 6' rumors lead to a new prediction market
Unfortunately, as with most rumors, official sources are not enough to suppress the rumor wildfire. On Sept. 21, this market launched with 31% chance of a delay before falling to 14% in the first 30 minutes. By the end of that day, the prediction had stabilized around 8-10%.
While rumors can be intense, it isn’t too surprising fans don’t believe official sources given the history. It’s also been 11 years since the previous game had been released, and the anticipation is undeniable. The first trailer beat YouTube’s first 24-hour view record for a non-music video with over 93 million views.
It seems that overall fans are unsure whether to trust the developers of the game. On Kalshi, there is only a 67% chance that “GTA 6” will be released before 2026. And all the rumors only continue to decrease the chances with a 6% fall from the beginning of September. And the hope of a new trailer before the first week of October continues to dwindle. With a 56% chance on Aug. 1, the chances have fallen to a current 15%.
Prediction News Pro Tip: For the latest and most important updates on public companies, a quick visit to their investor relations page can be useful. Public companies are obligated to disclose any information that could significantly affect their performance. For example, Take-Two shares all of their press releases and reports. Monitoring these releases is an easy way to stay up-to-date.
Whether we can trust Take-Two Interactive’s promises is unclear, but their track record speaks for itself. A delay could be exactly what GTA 6 needs to become the best-selling video game of all time.
