Kendrick Lamar has had a big year but will it feature a new album?
So far Lamar has topped the Billboard Hot 100, was named the performer for the 2025 Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime show, and just released a new song on Instagram.
All these announcements have fans speculating whether Kendrick Lamar will drop an album this year, too. On Kalshi, a platform where users can bet on future events, there is a market on which artists will release an album this year. Lamar’s is currently at a 49% prediction.
But why is there so much speculation about a potential album? Let’s break it down.
Kendrick Lamar and Drake feud timeline
If you were living under a rock, Drake and Lamar had a nuclear beef with both artists dropping new songs as responses to one another. While the feud has been going on for close to a decade, here are the basics of the overall timeline.
After a couple of collaborations in 2011 and 2012, Lamar threw shade at Drake in his feature on Big Sean’s “Control” in 2013. However, Lamar claimed that it was all just “friendly competition.” Over the next several years, there were a couple of shots fired from both sides but there wasn’t anything major. But then we get to October 2023.
Drake released “First Person Shooter,” featuring J. Cole, which peaked No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. This broke a record by giving Drake his 13th No. 1, tying him with Michael Jackson as the most No. 1s for a solo male act.
In the song, J. Cole makes a reference to the rap world’s current “big three,” which includes Lamar, Drake, and Cole. In the song, Cole says, “Love when they argue the hardest MC/ Is it K-Dot? Is it Aubrey? Or me?/ We the big three like we started a league/ but right now, I feel like Muhammad Ali.” Cole, perhaps unintentionally, triggered a huge chain of events.
In March 2024, Future & Metro Boomin released a feature with Lamar called, “Like That”. He claims his own spot at the top with the words – “the big three…it’s just big me.” In response, Drake released two tracks in April, “Push Ups” and “Taylor Made Freestyle.” In the first song, Drake mocks Lamar’s height but the diss track wasn’t only directed at him, while the second track was completely directed at Lamar.
At the end of April, Lamar responded with a six-minute-long diss track called “Euphoria.” In this track, he refers to Drake as a “scam artist” and “not a rap artist.” Lamar then drops a second diss track called “6:16 in LA” less than 3 days later. In this one, Lamar criticizes Drake’s label OVO saying, “You must be a terrible person/ Everyone inside your team is whispering that you deserve it.”
14 hours later, Drake released his third diss track, “Family Matters.” This song also wasn’t exclusively against Lamar but featured more harsh criticisms of him. Drake went so far as to claim Lamar physically abuses his fiancée Whitney Alford.
Minutes after “Family Matters” was dropped, Lamar released his third diss track, “Meet the Grahams.” Lamar claims Drake is hiding another child and that he isn’t a good father. And less than 24 hours later, Lamar released his fourth diss track, “Not Like Us.” On this one, Lamar refers to Drake as a “certified pedophile.” And the following day, Drake released the final diss track in this feud (so far) – “The Heart Pt. 6.”
By May 13th, “Not Like Us” debuted at the top spot on the Billboard Hot 100. Lamar’s “Euphoria” shot up to the No. 3 spot and his feature with Future and Metro Boomin is at the No. 6 spot. At the same time, Drake’s “Family Matters” was at the No. 7 spot.
This extremely public and in some ways (commercially) successful feud for both artists put them at the top of the minds of many of us.
Kendrick Lamar and the Super Bowl
With Lamar having a No. 1 hit from this highly publicized feud, perhaps it isn’t surprising that he was named the performer at the upcoming 2025 Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime show. However, it didn’t come without its own drama.
The Super Bowl LIX will be held in New Orleans and many believed the more natural choice for the performer would have been Lil Wayne, a New Orleans native. Nicki Minaj criticized the decision claiming it made more sense to have Wayne be the headliner. And Wayne also said he would be interested in the gig on YG’s 4HUNNID podcast.
Denying a young black man what he rightfully put into this game for no other reason but your ego. Your hatred for BIRDMAN, Drake & Nicki got you punishing Lil Wayne?!?!!! LIL WAYNE!!!!!!!!!! THE GOAT?!!!!!!!!!!! Nola what’s good?!!!!!! Eminem stood firm on having 50Cent come out.…
— Nicki Minaj (@NICKIMINAJ) September 9, 2024
On “The Talk,” 50 Cent, a past Super Bowl performer, said that Lamar was the right choice. “I think Kendrick deserves [it]. As a solo artist right now, he’s the guy.”
But this announcement doesn’t mean that Wayne can’t be part of the performance as a featured guest. Legendary rapper Master P wrote in a post on Instagram, “ I have to agree with fans that #LilWayne should be part of the celebration as well.” But he also felt the Kendrick Lamar decision was “well deserved.”
How has this affected the chances of Kendrick Lamar releasing an album?
If you take a look at Kalshi, there was a clear reaction to these moments. Over the August 24-25 weekend, Drake released three new songs on his Finsta and alluded the the feud with Lamar not being over. With this announcement and TMZ publishing an article featuring the title “Kendrick Dropping New Album Soon???,” the predictions of a Lamar album shot up to 99%. But this didn’t last, with chances dropping to 33% a day later.
Prediction News Pro Tip: When predictions get close to 99%, traders have a prime opportunity to lock in profits by selling near peak value before the market resolves.
But after Lamar’s Super Bowl announcement, the chances again shot up to 90% before dropping back down to 33% again. And on September 12th, Kendrick Lamar released an Instagram-exclusive track named “Watch the Party Die.” This led to the chances rising to a smaller peak of 56% before stabilizing at the current 50%.
