The iconic Gotham villain is back for his second round – “Joker: Folie à Deux” will be hitting theaters on Oct. 4, 2024. Exactly five years after the first movie, Joaquin Phoenix is back in his Oscar-winning role as Joker but this time joined by Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn.
This time, we are in for another surprise. The sequel is a musical featuring potentially 15 cover songs (according to a Variety report). It’s not too surprising that the highly anticipated movie has had users betting on its critical reception since April on prediction markets.
The sequel takes place two years after “Joker” (2019) and Arthur Fleck (Phoenix) has been institutionalized at Arkham State Hospital, There he falls in love with fellow inmate Lee Quinzel/Harley Quinn (Gaga). As the name insinuates, their shared insanity (“Folie à Deux”) makes them experience life as a musical.
And the months leading up to its highly anticipated release have been filled with positive and negative press leading to many ups and downs in prediction markets. Here are a few major moments:
‘Joker: Folie à Deux’ timeline
Aug. 20, 2024: In a Variety profile of director Todd Phillips, dispels rumors that the movie’s budget was $200 million and directly talks about the movie being a musical.
Sept. 4, 2024: “Joker: Folie à Deux” debuts at the Venice Film Festival to an 11 minute standing ovation but received mixed reviews.
Sept. 9, 2024: New teaser is released for “Joker: Folie à Deux”
Sept. 12, 2024: “Joker: Folie à Deux” is projected to make $70 million at the U.S. opening box office. This would be over $20 million less than the $96 million the first movie earned during its opening weekend.
Sept. 13, 2024: A new featurette is released focusing on Gaga’s character Lee. Phoenix and Phillips, talk about Gaga’s performance in the new movie. Gaga also speaks about her “special experience” with the making of this movie.
Sept. 18, 2024: The final trailer is released and features audio of Gaga singing Frank Sinatra’s “That’s Life.”
Sept. 24, 2024: Lady Gaga announces a “Joker: Folie à Deux” companion album, “Harlequin.”
How do the ‘Joker 2’ reviews affect the prediction markets?
The Variety profile of Phillips led to some uncertainty in the Kalshi market about the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score. Perhaps, traders hadn’t known the movie was a musical before the interview.
Or perhaps because the article addressed the fact that the movie could potentially be a hard sell to their mostly young men audience. Phillips is “banking on their appetite for something new and different.” However, the dip from 76% to 57% was temporary. It returned to 74% the following day.
Unsurprisingly, the largest drop was in the wake of the mixed reviews from the Venice Film Festival premiere. Variety’s Owen Gleiberman calls the film “an overly cautious sequel” and IndieWire’s David Ehrlich says the film “feels like it’s bad on purpose.” The drops in predictions were significant. The Rotten Tomatoes forecast dropped from 78.5% to a low of 57.5%.
After the film festival premiere, box office forecasts plummeted from a $100 million forecasted debut. Sept. 12’s forecasted $70M+ opening led to an obvious and significant change in Polymarket’s market about “Joker 2’s” opening weekend box office. From Sept. 9-12, the less than $105 million prediction option rose from 53% to 84%.
As we tap dance closer to the release date, we are all wondering if the film’s bold musical bet and start-studded cast are enough to get box office success. Will audiences embrace the chaos, or will Joker’s second act fall flat?
