Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” has blown expectations out of the water, becoming the highest-grossing film of 2024 so far. Not only has it become the highest-grossing animated film of all time with a global box office gross of $1,6 billion, it is now the eighth highest-grossing film of all time.
And with only three months left in the year, will “Inside Out 2” be the highest-grossing film of 2024? Bettors on Polymarket’s prediction market overwhelmingly think so.
“Inside Out 2” has us back in the mind of Riley, who is now a teenager and has a whole new set of emotions to deal with. The film’s approach to mental health and anxiety helped the film garner praise and brought people to theaters.
With such an impact, it’s not too surprising that bettors have “Inside Out 2” as the most likely movie to be the highest-grossing movie of the year at 91%. The second most popular choice is “Other” with 9%. But what other film can take “Inside Out 2’s” throne?
'Moana 2'
There is a lot in common between these two movies. They are both sequels to Disney movies that were successful at the box office. “Inside Out” made $858 million globally, while “Moana” made $687.2 million globally.
“Moana 2” takes place three years after the original movie’s events and has Moana (Auli’i Cravalho) and Maui (Dwayne Johnson) reunite for more adventures. But will this Disney princess adventure be able to overtake the hit Pixar movie?
“Inside Out 2” was projected to hit $80 million to $90 million on its opening weekend, but shattered expectations with a $155 million debut. The first “Moana” had an opening weekend of $56 million and would need to make quite the jump to receive the numbers “Inside Out 2” achieved. It’s too early to tell what the sequel’s forecasted opening weekend will be.
If we look at the views on the official trailers for this movie, the first “Moana 2” trailer sits at 11 million views on YouTube. On the other hand, the “Inside Out 2” trailer broke records with 157 million views in just the first 24 hours, albeit counting TikTok’s 78 million views as well.
With all these factors accounted for, the chances are unlikely Moana will be able to overcome “Inside Out 2” as the highest-grossing film of 2024.
‘Gladiator 2’
Another sequel has entered the Coliseum and will it be able to surpass “Inside Out 2”? This one is a bit harder to predict. This is the highly anticipated sequel to 2002’s “Gladiator.” Ridley Scott is back to direct the film which follows a grown-up Lucius (now played by Paul Mescal) years after the first movie’s events take place.
If prediction market existence is a predictor of high anticipation, “Gladiator 2” already has a market on Kalshi, while “Moana 2” does not. The market has also been up since April of this year. The bettors on Kalshi believe the film will receive positive critical reception with a forecasted Rotten Tomatoes score of around 81%.
And Scott is already planning the sequel to this movie. Scott told the Hollywood Reporter that “there’s already an idea” for “Gladiator 3.”
Of course, plans for a sequel don’t necessarily mean any success for the movie but with a leading star like Paul Mescal, the movie’s success is expected. How successful though is another question entirely.
‘Wicked’
Excitement is building on social media for the upcoming adaptation of Gregory Maguire’s 1955 novel, which features characters created by L. Frank Baum in his 1900 classic, “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz.”
The Maguire book spawned the massively popular “Wicked” Broadway show, which crossed the $1 billion mark in ticket sales back in 2016. Now, the Jon M. Chu-directed film adaptation is coming to theaters this November.
The film has a star-studded cast featuring Tony Award-winning Cynthia Erivo, pop star Ariana Grande, and Oscar-winning Michelle Yeoh just to name a few. This is also Ariana Grande’s highly-anticipated return to the film and theater world after finding success as a Grammy-winning pop singer for the last 10+ years.
Like “Moana 2,” “Wicked” doesn’t have any prediction markets yet for the film. However, with star power like Ariana Grande leading the movie, it might be easier to get her 376 million Instagram followers to go to the theaters.
And the marketing for “Wicked” is much stronger than the other two films. This movie already has its marketing in full swing. A Vanity Fair cover along with Vanity Fair’s highly popular “Lie Detector Test” series on Youtube, the stars are already promoting the movie.
Unsurprisingly, the movie wants to follow in the behemoth steps of 2023’s “Barbie” movie. Similar to the pink-themed marketing collab with luggage brand Beis, they have announced a collaboration with “Wicked.”
With big names leading the cast and a Barbie-inspired marketing playbook, this film is probably the biggest threat to “Inside Out 2’s” top position.
Will another movie take 'Inside Out 2’s' spot at the top?
While “Wicked” has the biggest shot, the chances may be slim. Firstly, there aren’t many movies that are able to cross the $1 billion mark. Only 55 movies have been able to reach this milestone, including “Barbie” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” last year.. However, both were released in earlier months, allowing more time to gain traction and ticket sales.
“Inside Out 2” also had another advantage – it was the only major release on Jun. 14, 2024. The same is not true for “Gladiator 2” and “Wicked.” All three of the previous movies mentioned are being released in November. “Gladiator 2” and “Wicked” will both be facing each other head-to-head at the box office on November 22.
However, “Wicked” was supposed to be released the following week with “Moana 2.” The producers of “Wicked” saw this as a significant issue and decided to move the original release date up by one week to avoid competing directly with “Moana 2” on the same day.
While “Moana 2,” “Gladiator 2,” and “Wicked” each have strong potential and dedicated fan bases, the combination of early momentum, critical acclaim, and a unique emotional appeal makes “Inside Out 2” a tough contender to beat as 2024’s highest-grossing film. With November fast approac
